Middlesex girls may have earned top-seed in CJ1 with GMCT upset; at least 37 teams expected to qualify

While the Rutgers Prep girls’ basketball team has been in line for a top seed much of the late season when it comes to the state playoff standings, it looks like Middlesex may have played themselves into a top seed in Central Jersey Group 1 with its huge upset of JP Stevens in Thursday night’s GMC Tournament first round.

With today being the cutoff for the state playoffs, Central Jersey Sports Radio predicts 38 teams are in the state tournament, with three more on the bubble on the final day to qualify.

Here’s a look at the standings in all sections with CJSR-area teams, as of 11 pm Friday night, per NJ.com, which provides the official calculations for the NJSIAA. 

(Note: Many teams will schedule last-minute games on the cutoff date to improve their standing, and some games may not be posted on NJ.com or other schedule sites.)

Central Jersey Group 4: It looks like Hightstown (20-3, 518 power points) will be the top seed here, but Howell (15-7, 467) may not be safe from Monroe (15-8, 457) with the Falcons just ten points behind in third. Howell visits Southern (18-4) Saturday, while the Falcons have a big one against North Plainfield (18-4) in the GMC Tournament quarterfinal round at Spotswood High School. With both having 15 wins and the top 16 point values counting toward the standings, both can score a lot of points today. And though Jackson Memorial (16-5, 453) is just four points behind Monroe, they don’t appear to have a game Saturday. Depending on how things shake out, though, East Brunswick could climb up from No. 5 to a top four seed if they can beat Colonia (17-7) in the GMCT quarters Saturday. And South Brunswick (12-10, 435) could make a move, too, from sixth, with a win over Middlesex (14-11) in the GMCT quarters as well. Detect a theme here? The GMC quarterfinals will have some major implications on this section. The good news for East and South Brunswick is they likely won’t fall behind seventh place Princeton (14-6, 398), which is 37 points behind the Vikings. Old Bridge sits in eighth, which is assuredly the Knights’ ceiling, as they’re 82 points from the next team above them. But they might have to watch out for Middletown South (9-11, 307, 9th) and Northern Burlington (12-9, 304, 10th). We’re not sure if they can catch the Knights on residuals – it might be a longshot – but all three teams appear to be idle Saturday. Holding down 11th place is Montgomery (10-12, 293), and while they won’t have a shot at a top eight seed and a first round home game, they look locked in 11th or 12th, just two points ahead of Freehold Township (10-11, 291). North Brunswick (3-20, 213) is on the bubble at 16, but idle today, and only two points ahead of West Windsor-Plainsboro South (6-16, 211). WWPS plays New Egypt (9-9) today, so the Raiders may be doing some scoreboard watching Saturday.

Central Jersey Group 3: The top-seed may not be determined yet, with Ocean Township (19-3, 565) leading the pack, but just ten points ahead of second-place Ewing (18-5, 555). But Somerville (19-3, 531) in third is probably too far back to catch either. The good news is, they appear to be locked into third place, which would give them home court through at least the first two rounds, and staying out of fourth avoids the top seed – whoever it will be – until the sectional final. Fr the next area team, we go down to 12th place for Carteret (13-10, 306), whose ceiling appears to be right where they are. But they’re only seven ahead of Freehold Borough (10-12, 299), and 12 ahead of South Plainfield (11-11, 294). And here’s another bubble team, as JFK (4-18, 209) holds the 16-spot by a slim one-point over Brick Township (5-15, 208). Neither have a game on the schedule Saturday, and it’s unclear if this one could come down to residuals, so hold on your hats!

Central Jersey Group 2: New Providence is assured of the top seed at 22-3, with 672 points, and 118 ahead of the next team, Rumson-Fair Haven (15-7, 554). The highest CJSR-area team is Spotswood (19-4, 518), six points behind wall. We imagine they could take a big jump if they were to pull off the huge upset and knock off top seed St. Thomas Aquinas (18-7) in Saturday’s GMCT quarterfinals; it might even be enough to get them a top four seed, where they’re just 17 points behind Manasquan (18-4, 535). Metuchen (16-8, 483) won’t have that shot, even though they’re right behind the Chargers; we think the Bulldogs are actually locked in at No. 7. South River (17-6, 419) occupies ninth place but we don’t think they’ll be able to crack the top eight, and predict a ninth- or tenth-place finish. Bound Brook is in 12th at 13-7, with 376 points, and they look like a good bet there. The Crusaders visit Somerville (19-3) Saturday morning in the Somerset County Tournament’s second round. Piscataway Magnet (13-10, 239) is only one spot out of the playoffs, but a lot of points behind Monmouth (13-6) and Point Pleasant Boro (11-10), with those teams tied at 313 points.

Central Jersey Group 1: Looks like Middlesex (14-11, 411) played its way into the top seed with a big upset win over third-seed JP Stevens in the GMC Tournament first round Thursday night, leap-frogging over now second-place Dunellen (17-6, 394). The Destroyers played Sayreville Friday night and are off Saturday, so the Blue Jays look safe, in our eyes. And third-place Shore (12-8, 364) is too far back. In fifth and sixth, respectively, are Highland Park (10-10, 297) and Manville (9-13, 290), and we think they are at least safe bets to end up in the top six, but no higher. Further down, Perth Amboy Magnet (6-12, 199) is in a tight bunch of teams, just seven behind tenth-place Keyport (9-11, 206). But behind them in 12th is Henry Hudson (8-12, 195), followed by South Amboy (5-16, 183). We feel pretty safe in calling Woodbridge Magnet (3-16, 145, 15th) and Somerset Tech (1-16, 130, 16th) in the playoffs, with 3-4 STEMCivics (119), 11 points out in 17th place.

North Jersey, Section 2 – Group 4: Plainfield (16-6, 510) should be the top seed here, followed by Bayonne (16-4, 491), before we get to the first CJSR-area team at three: Hllsborough (14-7, 462). But while they probably can’t get the two-seed, there’s the potential to drop to fourth, with JP Stevens just two points behind at 18-4, with 460 points. We think both will end up in the top four, even though it may not be assured. Woodbridge (13-11) and Franklin (12-11) are tied for seventh with 405 points, and we’re not sure how they’ll end up, but we believe one will take seventh and the other will take eighth; it could come down to potential residuals. Either way, we believe they’re safe from ninth-place Piscataway (11-11, 390), which is 15 points behind both. Ridge (9-4, 343) checks in at No. 13, tied with Irvington, and that could go either way, but these two should also be 13 and 14, in whichever order. Another bubble team is at 16 in Watchung Hills (5-15, 285). The Lady Warriors are just a point ahead of Union. But guess what? They square off with Ridge Saturday in the Somerset County Tournament second-round, so that could be a play-in game to the states for Watchung. They’re just one point ahead of Union (6-14, 284), which plays Irvington (10-10) Saturday. At 18 points back in 18th, we don’t think Perth Amboy (9-15, 267) will be a factor, even though the Panthers play Timothy Christian (14-6) Saturday.

North Jersey, Section 2 – Group 3: Chatham is assured of the top seed here at 21-2, with 670 power points. And Colonia should be locked in there as well. They are 17-7, with 566 points, a good margin behind Chatham (94) but also holding a big lead over third-place Mendham (16-5, 518), so the Patriots would be assured of home court at least through the sectionals semifinals. North Plainfield (18-4, 495) has Monroe (15-8) Saturday in the GMCT quarters, but we’re not sure if a win would be enough to catch fourth-place Cranford and put them in the top four. The Cougars are 16-6, with 517 points, but appear to be idle Saturday.

North Jersey, Section 2 – Group 2: It looks like the top-seed will be either Rutherford (16-5, 583) or Secaucus (17-5, 574), but the only area team here will start on the road. Bernards (11-12, 361) appears to be able to get no higher than its current tenth-place standing, but could finish as low as 11th with Dayton (11-8, 359) just two points back.

Non-Public North B: Defending state Group B champ Morris Catholic (21-0, 734) holds the No. 1 spot here – and won’t lose it – followed by Montclair Immaculate (20-4, 676), then Gill St. Bernard’s (20-3, 627). The Knights won’t make the top two, and will be in the top four, but whether they’re three or four remains to be seen. Gill has a 13 point lead over Saddle River Day (16-3, 614). Gill plays Hunterdon Central (14-8) Saturday, while SRD plays Holy Angels (14-5). Next, it’s Wardlaw-Hartridge (14-4, 346) in seventh, and most likely to finish thereabouts, while Mother Seton (10-7, 258) has enough room around them that the Setters should finish in their current position at No. 10.

Non-Public South B: Put it in the books for Rutgers Prep, with a record of 18-4, 656 points, 86 ahead of second-place Wildwood Catholic (21-2, 570). The Lady Argonauts are the two-time defending sectional champs here, and widely considered a favorite for a three-peat. Down at No. 8 in the (currently) 16-team field – you never know about opt-outs until the NJSIAA comes out with the brackets – is Timothy Christian (14-6, 361), but their standing could change one spot in either direction, nine behind Ranney (10-10, 370) and just four ahead of Bishop Esutace (11-11, 357). Timothy has Perth Amboy (9-15) Saturday, while Ranney picked up JP Stevens (18-4) Saturday, and Eustace has Haddon Township (14-6) Saturday. In 14th is Calvary Christian (5-10, 190), and they should finish there, or 15th.

Non-Public South A: The top-seed will be Red Bank Catholic (19-4, 661), but the next three spots are very much up in the air here on the cutoff date. St. Thomas Aquinas (18-7, 583) is in second, but just two points ahead of Trinty Hall (16-6, 581), and three ahead of fourth-place St. John Vianney (17-7, 580). The good news is all of these teams are squarely in the top four, it’s just the second, third and fourth seeds that need to be settled. Pingry (16-5, 545) is in fifth in what is now a 14-team field, with Mount St. Mary (12-10, 408) looking to be a solid 9-seed, while Immaculata (9-12, 329) appears to be locked into the tenth-seed.