Group 1 playoff analysis: Can Manville hang on to a top four seed?

With Cutoff Weekend just three weeks away here in New Jersey, we continue to take a look at each playoff supersection, and how the Big Central teams within them can hope to fare.

SOUTH 1 (Click here for official standings)

Manville (5-1) is right where it was last week, following a 27-0 win over Dunellen. And while they just want to win one game at a time and Pat Gorbatuk is focused on getting the Ws, the question is, even with an 8-1 record at the cutoff, can they hold on to a top four seed and get home field through at least the sectional semifinals?

Woodstown (5-0) is the top seed here, followed by Woodbury (5-1) with 1 and 2.4 UPRs, respectively. Salem (4-2) is next at 3.4 and Manville has a 3.8 UPR. It’s doubtful the Mustangs can make a top two finish, based on their schedule: Belvidere and Highland Park at home, closing at Bound Brook. those three teams are a combined 0-16 with an average SI value of 26.8. (Highland Park is below an 18, but the lowest you can get as an opponent for a win is 20.)

If those values were locked in now – and those of their opponents – they’d have a 39.97 OSI, knocking them down 5 places, worth 3 UPR points, putting them at 7.8, into sixth – assuming of course, no one else drops, something that could go either way.

For power points, those three games will be worth only 7 points each, unless one of them picks up a win before their 8th game (residuals are limited to an opponent’s first seven games). With a power point average of 13.83, they could dip to around 11.5 if nothing changes. That would drop them another three places, or 1.2 UPR points. And this is more certain, as there’s much less variation here, and those three remaining opponents are going to be hard-pressed to come up with any wins this week or next. Although they could gain residuals from teams they’ve already beaten.

The short answer is this: a lot of things have to break right for Manville, even if they take care of business, which they should. it may be out of the Mustangs’ control. That said, it’s a very good possibility they get a top eight seed, and at least a first round playoff home game.

South Hunterdon (3-2, 11.6 UPR) – which Manville has already beaten – is in 11th, down two spots from last week, after a second straight loss, this one to Brearley. They finish with Dunellen and Dayton, a pair of games they should win, before a Cutoff Weekend game at New Hope-Solebury in Pennsylvania, a game that won’t count for playoff contention Still, let’s call them a solid playoff team, squarely in the bottom eight.

Middlesex (3-2) is in 18th place, just two out of a playoff spot, but they have a tough three final games: at Roselle Park, home to Brearley and at New Providence. they most likely need to win two out of three to even have a shot, as long as that loss is to the Bears and not one of the other two teams. Stay tuned on this one, we’ll know more after this week, based on how the other teams do around them. Pitman sits in 16th at a 15.6 UPR, with Schalick (16.8) in 17th.

One thing to watch for the Blue Jays: Audubon is on the inside of the bubble at 1-3. But two wins is the minimum to make the playoffs. If that holds – and they have Collingswood (2-3-1), Haddon Heights (3-2) and Paulsboro (2-3) in the home stretch – and Middlesex finishes 17th, Audubon is out and the Blue Jays get in.

NORTH 1 (Click here for detailed standings)

It’s up two more spots for Brearley (5-0), one of four undefeated teams left in the Big Central. They moved up from sixth to fourth after a 14-0 win over South Hunterdon. Th top four teams are undefeated, with Mountain Lakes (1.4 UPR), Waldwick (3.2), and Wood-Ridge (3.2) all with the same 5-0 record. Brearley has a UPR of 4.

Can they stay within the top four? They’re a bit in the same situation as Manville. The schedule isn’t kind from a Strength index perspective, but it’s not as dire as it is for the Mustangs, either. The Bears play at Highland park, then at Middlesex, and close home against Dunellen.

Yes, they should win those games, but their numbers would drop. And Cedar Grove is nipping at their heels, at 5-1 with a 4.2 UPR, just two-tenths of a point behind. They have a better schedule, and even the best team they play – Caldwell, 5-0 with the state’s longest active winning streak at 20 games – with a loss is worth over 43 points toward OSI.

Our projection is Brearley is a solid top eight, but isn’t going stay in the top four even at 8-1 on Cutoff Weekend.