Central Jersey Sports Radio has encountered some kind of glitch in the math. And Gridiron New Jersey is working on it.
Attempting to reconcile our numbers with Gridiron – the NJSIAA’s official power points, OSI and UPR calculator – in order to produce projections for this weekend, a number of errors were encountered in North Jersey that saw different OSI values for several teams.
More teams were later found in the Big Central that had discrepancies, bringing the total number to 25.
UPDATE: As of 10:30 Wednesday morning, Gridiron is aware of the issue and working on correcting the numbers.
Discrepancies of 0.01 to 0.03 points are not considered, as they may be due to coding differences in rounding or truncating of numbers between CJSR and Gridiron at any point of the mathematical process. Which is to say, all the errors we counted are significant, and many may impact playoff seeding.
The CJSR calculation of OSI following Week 8 play for the schools affected had checked out with Gridiron NJ until yesterday, when COVID-related forfeits were added back to team schedules yesterday, after it was determined they would not be made up.
It appeared – and has since been confirmed by Gridiron – that the errors are in some way related to either Newark West Side or Brearley. All teams whose OSI calculated by Central Jersey Sports Radio did not match those calculated by Gridiron New Jersey had either a direct connection to West Side or Brearley (i.e., they played them) or played a team that played them.
The link between West Side and Brearley is that they are the only two teams in New Jersey to have picked up more than one COVID-related forfeit yesterday. Each had two.
Brearley picked up forfeit wins for its September 17 game against Roselle Park and its October 21 game against Dunellen.
West Side took forfeit wins over Montclair-Kimberley and North Bergen.
As a result, OSI values are off for 14 Big Central teams. OSI for Bernards, New Providence, Spotswood, Roselle Park, and Dunellen should be higher than what Gridiron has, by varying amounts. Those for Bound Brook, Johnson, Belvidere, Brearley, Dayton, Highland Park, Manville, Middlesex and South Hunterdon should be lower. The differences range from a few tenths of a point to almost two-and-a-half points for NewProvidence.
Manville’s drop, according to CJSR calculations, will put them back at 16th place instead of 13th, though it’s more likely than not the Mustangs should make the playoffs, particularly if they beat Metuchen this weekend. 17th place Glassboro is unlikely to catch Manville.
Among other teams in the state, Irvington, Orange, Bayonne, North Bergen, Passaic Tech should have higher OSIs, according to CJSR’s calculations. Millburn, Lincoln, West Side, Bloomfield, Kearny, Union City should be lower.