Brearley keeps winning, but the Bears keep dropping in the playoff standings. Here’s a closer look at the North and South Group 1 supersections based on Central Jersey Sports Radio’s unofficial calculations after Week 7’s Friday night games:
Brearley is the only legitimate playoff contender from the Big Central, but the Bears keep slipping. That’s not because they keep winning, it’s because of their schedule and the teams they’re beating.
To wit: the Bears are tops in the section in power points, but eighth in the UPR. That says their wins at 7-0 are not as good as Mountain Lakes, which has the same record, is in fifth in power point average, third in OSI, and third in UPR. Same deal with Wood-Ridge, which is second in power point average – just behind Brearley – but first in OSI at 60.37. Brearley’s is 45.49.
Part of the problem is this: there are not enough quality Group 1 schools of Brearley’s size in the Big Central to play. To find teams with better OSIs, they might have to play some Group 2s or even Group 3s. But that’s another story for another day.
Brearley was fourth from Week Three through Week Six. Now they fall to sixth place, and with Dunellen on the schedule, could they fall even further out of the top eight and lose a first round home game due to the schedule? We’ll know more after Saturday play today, and as the Strength Index values are locked in going into next week. Then we can see what scenarios play out – best- and worst-case – for the Bears.
Manville suffered a bit of the same fate as Brearley, as the Mustangs dropped from 5th to 6th despite a win Friday night; they beat a “weak” OSI Highland Park team. They’re at Bound Brook next week so it’ll be much of the same most likely, if they beat the Crusaders. The question is, can they now hold on to a top eight finish, which would guarantee them a first round home game in the playoffs?
South Hunterdon with a Friday night win over Dayton moved up a bit from 12th to 11th, not terribly consequential in the long run. The Eagles don’t have a shot at the top eight, but are in the playoffs.
Middlesex, which lost to Brearley Thursday night, dropped one spot to 19th, but the Blue Jays still have a shot next week, if they can beat New Providence. It remains to be seen if they will need some help from the teams around them. On the OSI side, they would be helped by losses by Buena and Penns Grove. On the ppower points side, they’re looking at losses by Paulsboro (yes, way up in the UPR but just one spot ahead of them in power point average) Audubon and Asbury Park. (Asbury plays Saturday at Lakewood, then next Friday at Shore.
Bottom Line: Manville needs a win next week to have a shot – and maybe a good one at that – to finish in the top eight. South Hunterdon is in and will be in the bottom eight. Middlesex needs a win and maybe some help to get in, but it’s not doable with a loss.