Tag: Hunterdon Central

by Mike Pavlichko

Week 6 Playoff Analysis: Group 5

Just three weeks of football remain before the state playoffs are seeded, and teams all across the state are jockeying for position.

Over the next few weeks here at Central Jersey Sports Radio, we’ll break down every Big Central Conference team’s playoff scenario like no one else. And our playoff coverage is sponsored by May Family Appliances, Route One South in the Wick Plaza in Edison.

While the nature of the NJSIAA’s UPR system – which uses Opponent Strength Index for 60 percent of the formula and traditional power points for the other 40 percent – is very fluid from week to week, things will come into much clearer focus on Cutoff Weekend, when Strength Index numbers are locked in.

Until then, it’s not just wins and losses that determine playoff seeding, but how much – or in some cases how little, which often is better – a team wins or loses by. A loss to a strong opponent can help, while a win over a weak one can hurt.

Here’s our team-by-team look at Group 5. Official standings on Gridiron New Jersey can be found by clicking the links below.

NORTH GROUP 5:

2. Phillipsburg (4-1): The top two teams here are Passaic Tech (6-0) and the Stateliners, with PCTI having a UPR of 1, and P’burg a UPR of 2. That means Passaic Tech is ranked first in both power points and OSI, while Phillipsburg is ranked second in both. If the playoffs were seeded today, the Stateliners would be the top seed in the North 2, Group 5 section. The schedule is never easy for them, but they’ve gotten through some very good teams already – like Ridge, Hunterdon Central and Sayreville – and have two more toughies coming up. This week at Bridgewater-Raritan (yes, they’re 1-5, but have traditionally played P’burg tough) and next week at Union (4-2), before a bit of a breather on Cutoff Weekend when they host currently winless East Brunswick. Assuming P’burg keeps winning, could their schedule hurt them down the stretch? Bridgewater may be 1-4, but they have an SI in the 70s, which would very much help P’burg’s current 61.29 OSI.

3. Watchung Hills (5-1): The Warriors are coming off their first loss of the season – to Montgomery at home Saturday night – but are in a good line for a two-seed. Currently, they’d be in Phillipsburg’s section. Their schedule is strong SI-wise. Even a win over 0-fer Elizabeth on the final weekend would help, as their Strength Index is around 60, still a few points higher than Watchung’s OSI. They have some tough ones the next two weeks, at Plainfield this Saturday, then home to St. Joseph-Metuchen. Keep winning, and a two-seed is likely.

5. Union (4-2): The Farmers are having a nice rebound year, and are in line for a third-seed if they can keep winning. They could even move higher – Union City in fourth is just one UPR point ahead of them – due to their challenging schedule: Elizabeth on the road this week, home to Phillipsburg next week, then at Ridge. A sweep would be a mighty feat, and it’s likely Union would be rewarded handsomely for it.

7. Plainfield (4-1): Boy, has James Williams got it going on with the Cardinals, who are looking to surpass their last two 5-5 seasons in a big way here in 2023. How much they can improve their standing, though, remains to be seen. The goal is a top eight finish to get one of the top four seeds in whatever section they land. A win against Watchung Hills at home this Saturday would be enormous, but wins over Monroe and Franklin – both 2-4 – may not move the needle, or worse. The Cards might need a sweep to play a playoff game at Hub Stine Field.

14. Piscataway (3-3): In 2011, the Chiefs started 1-2, and head coach Dan Higgins said from that point on, every game was a playoff game, just to get in. This year’s squad started 0-2, and is in much the same boat. Their biggest obstacle will be Sayreville next week at home, sandwiched between a home game against East Brunswick this Friday night (CJSR, 6 pm) and a road game at New Brunswick Friday night of Cutoff Weekend; the Bears and Zebras are a combined 0-2. For now, we’re calling them a bubble team on the right side of said bubble.

15. Westfield (2-3): Tough loss on a last-second field goal to St. Joseph this past weekend, but the Blue Devils are still in contention for a playoff spot. They’re also a bubble team, and on the right side of it, but they only lead Bayonne by 0.8 UPR points, and Bridgewater by a full UPR point. This could easily go either way for Westfield, too, with three very solid opponents coming up: Somerville (4-2) and Ridge (4-1) at home this week and next, followed by a road game at Hillsborough (5-1) on Cutoff Weekend. They might be able to get in with just one win against that slate; two seems like they’d sew it up.

17. Bridgewater-Raritan (1-5): Yes, even four games below .500 with three to play, the Panthers are still in contention. Such is life in Group 5 and a tough division like they play in, the American Silver. Consider the fact that it’s the only division in the Big Central with three ranked teams: No. 2 Ridge, No. 3 Hillsborough and No. 4 Phillipsburg. And they lost to all three by just a touchdown each; their five losses have come by an average 7.4 points. (Meanwhile, Spotswood is hanging on to a playoff berth at 6-0, but we’ll get to that when we get down to Group 2. In any event…) Bridgewater has a good schedule the rest of the way, and they may need to win all three. They start with Phillipsburg at home, then host Elizabeth next week before ending at Old Bridge.

SOUTH GROUP 5:

4. Hillsborough (5-1): The Raiders come after Cherokee, Toms River North and Marlboro, and expect 15th place Lenape to make a massive jump when they play – after Cherokee this weekend – multipliers St. Joe’s-Hammonton next week and St. Augustine on Cutoff Weekend. Yes, the nasty NJSIAA double multiplier will wreak some havoc on behalf of this 2-4 Burlington County team, which lost in last year’s Central 5 sectional final to Edison. Be that as it may, Hillsborough maintained its position at No. 4 this week with another big win, this time over Union. They have a good schedule the rest of the way, with Hunterdon Central in Flemington this weekend, then home games with Somerville and Westfield for the last two. And there’s some distance behind them., so they’re not too bunched together here.

5. North Brunswick (5-0): Despite being unbeaten, the Raiders – who are just 0.8 UPR points behind Hillsborough – dropped from third place last week to fifth, after a 50-0 victory over 2-win Franklin. Their problem is things don’t get better with the schedule, with a pair of 0-6 and low-SI teams the next couple of weeks: New Brunswick home Friday and East Brunswick away next weekend, before coming back home to finish out with a good Cranford team that’s 3-2 and has a 68 SI. We say the Raiders could go 8-0 and still not reach the top four, especially if the teams above them continue to win. They may need one of them to slip and fall in order to climb the ladder.

9. Hunterdon Central (4-2): The Red Devils started 4-0, but have since lost two straight. Can they get back to their winning ways? If so, a home first-round playoff game at Stewart Field could be in the cards. They’re just one UPR point out of the top eight. But the top half – and then some – in this supersection is very good. There are two undefeated teams and five one-loss teams in the top 12, and none of those teams has more than two losses. The good news for Central is that two of the teams directly behind them – Kingsway and South Brunswick – are well behind by 1.6 UPR points, and West Windsor-Plainsboro in 12th is three full UPR points in arrears. Keep winning, and they’ll stave off the teams behind them. This weekend is a tough one against Hillsborough, but it’s at home. The next two weeks are not as challenging: at Franklin and home to Perth Amboy; both are 2-4.

11. South Brunswick (4-2): The Vikings are tied with Kingsway for 10th, but the Dragons would get the tiebreaker by virtue of having a higher OSI (50.18 to 47.25). Their last three weeks are a pretty good schedule, starting with a trip to Basking Ridge to take on Will Deady, Ryan Olivo and the Red Devils this Friday night. Next week, they get Edison at home, and finish at Brooks Field against Somerville. We don’t think they make the top eight even with a sweep, but a win or two should lock up a playoff berth.

16. Edison (3-3): The Eagles are the quintessential bubble team, and have three huge games left. We think two wins gives them a very good shot to be in the field, and if things go the way they are now, they might be better off squeaking in at 16 to avoid Toms River North in the opening round. Edison lost to the Mariners in last year’s Group 5 semifinal. The next three opponents are St. Joe’s this week at home, South Brunswick away next week, and St. Thomas Aquinas at home on Cutoff Weekend. One win, however, might not cut it.

18. Franklin (2-4): Yes, the Warriors may have a mathematical shot, and teams like Edison may have a lot to do with it, but the schedule isn’t kind to the Warriors. They have No. 9 Sayreville this week at home, followed by 4-2, but reeling, Hunterdon Central, then a Saturday Cutoff Weekend game at Plainfield. Considering Franklin needs to make up big ground, they probably need two wins to have a shot at getting in, maybe even all three. Against that slate, it’s a big ask.

by Mike Pavlichko

Stateliners shake off injuries, beat Hunterdon Central 21-7 to get back in win column

Phillipsburg’s rumble with Hillsborough on the Raritan back on Sunday left the Stateliners with a number of injuries at key spots, including tight-end and quarterback.

Next man up.

Third-ranked P’burg got two second quarter touchdowns to take a 14-0 lead into the half at Maloney Stadium Friday night against ninth-ranked Hunterdon Central to beat the Red Devils 21-7.

Backup quarterback Nick Stettner – in for Jett Genovese, who injured his ankle against the Raiders Sunday but shouldn’t be out long, according to head coach Frank Duffy – threw two touchdown passes in the second quarter, one each to John Wargo and Kevin Burgess – of 10 and 56 yards, respectively.

Hunterdon Central’s only score came in the fourth quarter, when the Red Devils’ fell on a Phillipsburg fumble in the end zone. That made it 14-7, but John Wargo’s second touchdown of the game – a 38-yard rush – gave Phillipsburg back the cushion it needed.

The Stateliners improve to 4-1, while Central dropped its second straight game to fall to 4-2.

Click below to hear Mike Pavlichko talk about the Stateliners’ win with head coach Frank Duffy:

by Mike Pavlichko

Mid-Season Playoff Analysis: More than half-dozen BCC “big boys” have legitimate shot at top seeds

At the mid-way point of the high school season, with four more weeks of football until the playoffs are seeded, there are seven large – Group 5 or 4 schools – with a realistic shot at earning a top seed when the sectional playoffs begin the weekend of October 27th.

This is our first week of playoff projection analysis on cjsportsradio.com, presented by My Family Appliances in Edison, and we begin with a look at North and South Group 5 and 4 supersections..

With still a lot of football to be played, the analysis will be a bit more general in nature this week, but will get increasingly detailed with each passing week as the numbers come into better focus.

Playoff Qualification Primer

The NJSIAA uses the United Power Ranking (UPR) to determine where teams are seeded. Without getting into all the behind the scenes calculations and caveats, each team’s UPR is based on two factors: their rank in the supersection based on power points and on OSI.

Power points are an average and based on the traditional formula that’s been used – albeit altered from time-to-time – over the years. Teams get six points for every win, group points based on the group of the opponent, and residuals – 3 for every win by a team you beat, 1 for every win by a team you lost to.

OSI is the Opponent Strength Index, and average of all the opponents played. Teams get the full value of a team’s Strength Index for a win, half for a loss. A win over an opponent with an SI of 80 gets and 80, a loss gets you 40 points. SI varies based on results throughout the year.

Teams are ranked in each category. OSI values are worth 60 percent of the formula, power points 40 percent. That added number makes the UPR, with lower numbers better. The best UPR a team can have is a 1, which is first in both power points and OSI.

The UPR is calculated for the NJSIAA by the website Gridiron New Jersey. Central Jersey Sports Radio also does its own unofficial calculations throughout the season, and will unveil its playoff projections in our annual special broadcast, this year on Saturday, October 21 from 5-7 pm, presented by My Family Appliances in Edison.

North Group 5

There are three area teams in the top five at the moment. After Passaic Tech in first, there’s Watchung Hills second, Union third, then Union City, and Phillipsburg in fourth.

The Warriors (5-0) have a big clash at home Saturday night with Montgomery (5-0) so that could boost their power point average. Union also has a huge game at Cooke Field with Hillsborough, which just knocked off previously-undefeated P’burg Sunday in the Rumble on the Raritan at Rutgers. The Stateliners try to get back on the horse Friday against Hunterdon Central, which just took its first loss of the season Friday to Ridge.

After that, there’s a chance for a home game for Plainfield, which is 3-1 at the moment and sitting in seventh. They go out of conference Friday night with a trip to North Bergen (2-2), and have a big one with Watchung Hills next week at home before closing at Monroe and home to Franklin, two very winnable games. The Cards look like the have a shot here.

Next, you have to go down to 12th to find Westfield, whose victory over winless Scotch Plains-Fanwood Friday probably did them no favors. The good news is, they Blue Devils are 2-2 after an 0-2 start, so they’re trending in the right direction. Westfield is at St. Joseph-Metuchen Saturday afternoon.

Though they’re on the right side of it at this point, we’ll call Piscataway and Bridgewater-Raritan bubble teams for now. The Chiefs (2-3) are in 14th, while the Panthers (1-4) are in 15th. This is a danger zone, because any team with one or two wins will make big jumps if they win a third or fourth game. So, they’ll have to watch teams behind them.

Of course, winning themselves will help.

The last four games for the Chiefs are winnable, starting with Old Bridge on the road this week, then East Brunswick home on Friday, October 6th – a game you can hear on CJSR at 6 pm from Kenny Armwood Stadium. Sayreville and New Brunswick close out their schedule.

Bridgewater-Raritan has a much more difficult schedule. They’re at Ridge this week, and home to Phillipsburg the next, before Elizabeth and a road game at Old Bridge round out the slate.

South Group 5

Two area teams are in the top six here, and you need to finish in the top two to get a top seed in one of the sections, South or Central 5. North Brunswick (4-0) currently sits in fourth, with a 3.4 UPR, just one UPR point behind second-place Toms River North (4-1).

The problem for the Raiders is their schedule is not conducive to climbing up the rankings. Of the four teams remaining, two are winless (New Brunswick and East Brunswick) and Franklin (this week) and Cranford (Cutoff Weekend) each have just two wins at the moment. As far as a top-seed is concerned, there’s zero margin for error here.

Hillsborough sits in sixth at 4-1, and got a big boost with its upset win over previously-unbeaten Phillipsburg. That was 20 power points for the win, as opposed to four for a loss. They’ll have similar opportunities the next two weeks – both on the road – against Union and Hunterdon Central. And their last two home games against Somerville and Westfield won’t hurt them either. Running the table could give them a really good shot.

Hunterdon Central currently sits in eighth, and should be able to get a first round home game. Their remaining four games are a mixed bag. They should beat both Franklin and Perth Amboy to end the regular season, so a first-round playoff game (top 8 finish in the supersection) could ride on getting at least one win in the next two weeks, which includes a trip to Phillipsburg this Friday night, and a home game against Hillsborough next weekend.

South Brunswick sits in 11th, well enough inside the bubble, but also fairly likely a bottom eight finish.

On the bubble are Edison and Franklin. The Eagles are the defending Central Jersey Group 5 champs, and 2-3 at the moment. There are some winnable games on the schedule for the Eagles, including a home game with New Brunswick this Friday night.

The Warriors, however, are another story. While 2-3, their wins have come against East Brunswick and New Brunswick, opponents who are a combined 0-10. Their next three opponents – North Brunswick on the road this week and Sayreville and Hunterdon Central are a combined 11-3. So, we’ll not only see how much Franklin has improved this year, but whether a must-have win against at least one of those teams can get them in the playoffs.

North Group 4

In the top four are two Big Central teams from very competitive divisions, which explains why they’re there. Montgomery sits in third at 5-0, with a 4 UPR, two points behind second place Mount Olive. Then Ridge is right behind them – literally – with a 4.2 UPR. Northern Highlands is right behind the Red Devils with a 4.4 UPR.

This is very bunched up right now, and with a lot of football to be played, too close to call. Bottom line: Montgomery and Ridge will need to keep on winning. A loss by either team might make too high a mountain to climb to get into the top two.

Linden (4-1) has looked very good this year, and the Tigers claim seventh place this week in the UPR standings. They’ve got a reasonable schedule the rest of the way with JFK at home this week, then at Summit and Cranford before finishing at Montgomery in what could be a critical game to clinch at least a first-round home game.

Woodbridge looks like a pretty good playoff bet. The Barrons are tenth and 3-2 on the season, and Rahway – also 3-2 on the year – is right behind them. Woodbridge could have a legit shot at a top eight finish and a first round home game, Rahway a little less so, but they still have a chance with four weeks left and a good enough schedule that could give them a boost. They may have to go 3-1 the rest of the way to do it, though.

Sayreville sits in 13th, and while I wouldn’t call them a bubble team yet, the 3-2 Bombers can’t get complacent. Granted, their losses have come to Phillipsburg and North Brunswick, the only two teams that have occupied the top spot in the CJSR rankings. If Sayreville is as good as their preseason hype, they should do no worse than 3-1 the rest of the way.

Outside the bubble and a longshot to make the field is Scotch Plains-Fanwood, which is 1-4 and in 19th place. But more interesting is Colonia. The Patriots are 2-3, but all the way down in 21st place. They have a 20.2 UPR, 4.8 points out of a playoff spot. The schedule is favorable with winless North Hunterdon coming to the blue turf this week, and then a visit to 2-3 Perth Amboy next week. It could come down to the last two weeks – with home games against Summit and Rahway, two teams in the playoff field – to decide Colonia’s playoff fate.

South Group 4

While there are no Big Central teams in this section, it’s worth mentioning briefly since New Jersey now plays all the way to group champs. For now, we’ll just point out that the top two teams are Mainland (5-0) and Millville (3-1), followed by WInslow (4-1) and Brick Memorial (5-0).

by Mike Pavlichko

“The Big Central in 2 Minutes” – Week 5: Upsets, Near Upsets and Unbeatens

We’re now officially at the mid-point of the high school football season, and things are heating up – from Hillsborough’s big upset of Phillipsburg at Rutgers to this week’s cash of titans between Watchung Hills and Montgomery, both of whom are 5-0.

CJSR veteran reporter Mike Pavlichko takes a closer look at all that and much more – on this week’s edition of “The Big Central in Two Minutes!”

Click below to listen to the Week Five edition of “The Big Central in Two Minutes”:

by Mike Pavlichko

North Brunswick, St. Thomas Aquinas take first place votes after Phillipsburg upset, but Ridge gets No. 1 spot in Media Poll

This one was all about the math.

After previously-undefeated No. 1 Phillipsburg was knocked off by No. 8 Hillsborough, and No. 2 North Brunswick survived No. 7 Sayreville in Sunday’s Rumble on the Raritan, the 4-0 Raiders picked up three first-place votes.

St. Thomas Aquinas, which is 5-0, got the two other first place votes.

But the disagreement on who should be No. 1 left neither team with the top spot. It went to Ridge, which got all three second-place votes and two third-place votes, earning them 43 points, two more than the Raiders, who picked up 41 points.

Just like the standard AP Polls in college football and basketball – which give 25 points for a first-place Top 25 vote, 24 for second, 23 for third and so on, the Big Central Media poll awards 10 points for a first-place vote, nine for second, and so on down the line.

Below are the full Big Central Media Poll Week 5 rankings:

by Mike Pavlichko

Phillipsburg loss, North Brunswick win put Raiders at top of Central Jersey Sports Radio Week 5 Top Ten

Phillipsburg was the No. 1 team in the preseason Central Jersey Sports Radio Top Ten, and held that spot definitively through its first three games.

But a loss in Game Four, 14-13 to No. 8 Hillsborough Sunday at Rutgers in the Rumble on the Raritan, left the door open for a new No. 1 team.

But who would be that team?

We got our answer just a few hours later, when No. 2 North Brunswick picked off a two-point try pass to seal a 21-20 win over No. 8 and upset-minded Sayreville.

North Brunswick has achieved the No. 1 ranking in each of the last three seasons of the CJSR rankings. The Raiders were No. 1 last year after Week One, and were first in the Week One and Week Two rankings in 2021.

Ridge moved up three placed to second after a big win at No. 9 Hunterdon Central, while the Stateliners fell to third. Hillsborough – which had been No. 8 before the upset win, climbed four spots to fourth, but didn’t overtake P’burg.

Three teams tied for ninth this week, with no teams dropping out, Union making its debut, and all eleven teams that got votes ended up in the rankings thanks to the three-way tie for ninth.

Below are the full Week 5 Central Jersey Sports Radio rankings:

by Mike Pavlichko

No. 4 Ridge pulls away with four unanswered TDs for 41-13 win over No. 9 Hunterdon Central

Hunterdon Central – having one of its best starts in years – hung in there with Ridge for one half of football.

But after halftime, it was Ridge’s night.

The fourth-ranked green-clad Red Devils broke a 13-all tie before the half then scored three more touchdowns in the second half while keeping the other “red” Red Devils off the scoreboard, en route to a dominating 41-13 win at Stewart Field in Flemington Friday night.

Ridge QB Ryan Olivo ran for a touchdown and threw four TD passes on the night: two to Ryan Turner – one of which went for 66 yards – and one each to Wilson Brady and Rooke Donohoe.

Ridge improved to 3-1 on the season, while Central suffered its first loss, and is now 4-1.

Click below for postgame reaction from Marcus Borden presented by Sportsplex at Metuchen:

by Mike Pavlichko

Phillipsburg still No. 1, Union makes debut in Week 4 Big Central Media Poll

For the fifth straight week, going back to the preseason, Phillipsburg is the unanimous No. 1 team in the Big Central Media Poll, while Union made its first appearance in the rankings, getting votes for the for just the second time this year.

The Stateliners are 3-0 after a 54-7 road win at North Hunterdon. Their next opponent is No. 7 Hillsbrough, which dropped five spots after a 28-7 loss to Ridge Thursday evening. P’burg and the Raiders will square off in the Rumble on the Raritan at Rutgers University’s SHI Stadium in Piscataway in a noon game Sunday you can hear on Central Jersey Sports Radio, part of a doubleheader that also features North Brunswick and Sayreville, who will play in the second game at 3:30 pm.

Hillsborough and Somerville were the only two teams in the Media Poll to have lost this past week. The Pioneers dropped to 2-1 with a 27-21home loss to Montgomery Friday night, and fell out of the rankings, getting three votes from the five media members.

Union took the opportunity to move into the rankings at No. 10, winning three straight since a season-opening loss to Rancocas Valley in the Battle at the Beach at Ocean City High School in Week Zero.

The Farmers host Somerville Friday night at Cooke Field.

Below is the full Week 4 Big Central Media Poll:

by Mike Pavlichko

Phillipsburg holds at No. 1, Bernards debuts in Week 4 Central Jersey Sports Radio Top Ten

Another week, another top finish for Phillipsburg in the Central Jersey Sports Radio Week 4 rankings. The Stateliners are 3-0 after a 54-7 win over North Hunterdon Friday in their first road game of the season.

P’burg is back in action Sunday at noon in the Rumble on the Raritan at Rutgers Univeristy’s SHI Stadium in Piscataway, part of a Big Central doubleheader that can be heard on Central Jersey Sports Radio. The Liners play Hillsborough at noon, while North Brunswick and Sayreville will follow at 3:30 pm.

Mewanwhile, previous No. 9 Colonia (2-2) was knocked out of the top ten with a loss this week, as was previous No. 10 Somerville (3-1).

Bernards (4-0) made its debut in the poll this season, after a 30-6 win over Voorhees on Thursday night.

Below are the full Week 4 Central Jersey Sports Radio rankings:

by Mike Pavlichko

“The Big Central in 2 Minutes” – Week 3: So many teams, no place to put ’em

We’re back with our Week Three episode of “The Big Central in Two Minutes,” as veteran CJSR sportscaster Mike Pavlichko shares notes, stats, and observations on area high school football.

This week, a look at all 15 unbeatean teams in the league, Carteret’s historic start to the season, Highland Park’s scoring outburst, and lightning ends a Saturday game.

Click below to listen to the Week Three edition of “The Big Central in Two Minutes”: