We know, this is your favorite time of year, and it’s ours, too: Cutoff Weekend will be here before you know it.
As we officially get into the second half of the 2026 regular season, every game means so much. Some teams will be fighting for a top seed, others will be trying to earn a home game, and still others will try to sneak in as that overall No. 16 seed.
Each week, from now through Cutoff Weekend, we’ll provide our analysis on the scenarios for every Big Central Conference public school team that’s in the running. (Non-publics are seeded by committee, relying in varying degrees on the playoff standings.)
Our analysis is based on the official NJSIAA playoff standings as calculated by NJ.com based on games through Week Four, and standings as they are as of September 30. Since our own calculations matched NJ.com’s numbers this week, no further updates are expected this week.
One thing to remember is that Strength Index values of all out-of-state opponents have not changed since their release after Week Two, but will be updated again after Week 5, then again after this weekend’s Week Five games. One last update will be made after Week Seven, which is when all the New Jersey teams’ SI values are locked in solely for Cutoff Weekend qualification purposes. (SI is tracked all the way through the state finals to get the base numbers that are adjusted in advance of the 2027 season.)
Now, it’s on to our section-by-section breakdown! (Note: There are no Big Central teams in the South 4 or South 3 supersections, so we’ll be skipping an analysis of those sections, though we do plan to project those brackets on our Playoff Projection Show on Saturday, October 24th.)
North Group 5
Ramapo (4-1) leads the section, followed by West Orange (4-1), and then the highest-rated Big Central team, undefeated Elizabeth (5-0). All three could be interchangeable at this point, with UPR ratings from 1.8 for Ramapo and 2.20 for the Minutemen. They and 2025 North 2, Group 4 champion Phillipsburg (4-1, 4.4 UPR, 4th) could have a chance at the top seed, but we’re not sure about Piscataway (4-1), even though they’re just 0.2 UPR points behind the Stateliners. Phillipsburg has Ridge, a bye, then Bridgewater and Hunterdon Central, with an average 69.57 SI value. The Chiefs have Franklin, St. Joseph-Metuchen, Monroe and Sayreville for a 65.16 average SI value, and are hurt by St. Joe’s losing mutliplier status with its second public school loss this season, coming at the hands of Phillipsburg last week. We like the chances defending North 2, Group 5 champ Bridgewater-Raritan (4-1) gets a home game, as they currently sit in sixth, and have a strong, but manageable schedule the rest of the way if they maintain their level of play through the cutoff.
In the bottom eight of the top 16, Union (4-1) sits in ninth, but a top eight finish and a first round home game for the Farmers is still very much in play. Resurgent Perth Amboy (4-1) sits in 12th, with a wide disparity between their power point rank (8th) and OSI (16th). But after New Brunswick this week, their schedule gets tougher, with trips to New Providence and South Plainfield around a home game with Johnson in Week Seven. Plainfield (2-3) is right behind them, and we peg them as a bottom eight team for now.
South Group 5
Defending state Group 5 champ Washington Twp. (5-0, 1.4 UPR) unsurprisingly leads the pack here, followed by Southern (4-1, 2.8) and Old Bridge (4-1, 3.4). Do the Knights have a crack at a top seed? Perhaps, as they will go to the top two teams, and they would likely be the top seed in Central 5, while everyone else above them or below, down to six, is from South Jersey, including Rancocas Valley fourth, then Toms River North and Eastern. Another reason this Friday night’s Big Central Game of the Week is a critical one is that Sayreville (4-1, 7.0) is in seventh, looking not only to stay in the top eight, but maybe move up. This isn’t a winner-take-all game, but it could be great for the victor and a tough pill to swallow standings-wise for the loser.
After that, it’s all the way down to 13 for Monroe (3-2, 13.8), with no other BCC teams in the top 16 as of now. The closest bubble team would be South Brunswick (2-3, 17.4), just one UPR point behind Cherokee and Kingsway (tied for 15th), and Freehold Township in between them. But Kingsway isn’t a lock, as they sit at 0-5, and will have to split their last four games to become playoff eligible; qualifying teams must have at least two wins. That’s possible, but no guarantee, with Williamstown, Camden, St. Augustine and Atlantic City all on the upcoming schedule.
North Group 4
Despite taking its first loss of the season last Friday night, 14-7 to Cranford, Rahway remains in the thick of things, holding at No. 3 at 4-1 with a 3.0 UPR. Middletown North (4-0, 1.4) and Roxbury (4-1, 1.6) are ahead of them, but potentially catchable; we’ll know more after this week, and even more after Week Six. After Northern Highlands (3-2, 4.0), Ridge (2-2, 5.4) sits in fifth, and has a big opportunity with Phillipsburg visiting this week. Despite their .500 record, after this weekend the Red Devils will have played four Bellamy & Son Paving Top Ten teams in their first four games, a big reason why they are ranked so high. But any more losses, and they could start to hurt. Montgomery (3-2, 7.80) sits at seventh, but consider they started 0-2 and now have won three-in-a-row, meaning if they continue this hot play, their stock could rise.
In the bottom half of the top 16, there’s Woodbridge (3-2, 10.8) at eleven, and Summit (3-2, 11.4) in 12th. Either have a shot at a top eight finish and a first round home game, but probably not Carteret (2-3, 14.4), unless they can get above the .500 mark. Watchung Hills, with the same record and same UPR, is in the same boat; they’re both tied for 14th.
On the bubble right now is Colonia (1-4, 19.8), sitting in 19th, with a lot of ground to make up between them and 16th-place Chatham (2-3, 16.2). But if they can string together some wins, the Patriots should be in the mix.
North Group 3
There are a couple fewer teams here this year, as Carteret and Summit moved up to Group 4, but the highest Big Central team here is still very much in the running for a top-seed. (Remember, you only need to finish in the top two overall.) It’s Old Tappan (4-0, 1.0 UPR) leading the pack – first in both power point average and OSI – but then followed by three closely-packed teams: West Essex (5-0, 3.0), Shabazz (3.1, 3.2) and undefeated Cranford (4-0, 3.8). There’s a lot of football to be played here, and this should come down to the final weekend.
After that, it’s all the way down to 12 for Somerville (3-2, 13.6), which isn’t exactly locked into the bottom eight, but it may take a lot of work on their part – and some help for others – to end up playing a first round game at Brooks Field.
South Plainfield (3-2, 16.4) is on the outside looking in, but if they keep winning, they’ll have a legitimate shot.
North Group 2
Always a contender, Bernards (3-2, 6.4 UPR) is at least in the top eight, but probably not in play for a top-seed. Westwood (4-1, 1.80) leads the section, followed by Caldwell, Rutherford, Hoboken and Lakeland. They should at least finish in the top eight and have a first-round home game.
New Providence (4-0, 9.2) is undefeated, but a victim of a weaker schedule with wins over Voorhees, Johnson, Metuchen and Roselle but they’ll be helped by Perth Amboy’s resurgence – if they can beat them next week. But first, a trip to 4-1 Dayton, with an SI of 62.74 that should help their 47.90 OSI – again, should they beat the Bulldogs. They sit in 10th right now, 2.6 UPR points out of the top eight. But to get there, they may need to win out, finishing 8-0, and get some help along the way. Squarely on the bubble, we also have undefeated Hillside (5-0), again a victim of a weaker schedule; only one of their first five opponents has an SI currently over 50. The good news is, they have Bernards, Manville and Cranford as three of their last four opponents, all with SI’s over 70. They probably need to win two of those to get in. If they win out, they’ll be in automatically, as the NJSIAA guarantees 8-0 teams will get in. But if they do win out, we think they’re likely a qualifier without that rule kicking in.
South Group 2
Though there are six Big Central teams in this section, only one is in the top 16, and it’s Governor Livingston (3-2, 15.2 UPR). The Highlanders have a decent lead of 1.2 UPR over 17th-place Haddon Heights (4-1), but it’s not insurmountable. Governor Livingston may be fending off those behind them for the rest of October.
Johnson (2-2) is well back at 19, with a 19.0 UPR.
Two undefeated 5-0 teams lead the pack here, with Rumson-Fair Haven (1.0) followed by West Deptford (1.6).
North Group 1
Two-time defending North 2, Group 1 champion Cedar Grove (3-1, 1.0 UPR) is a sizable leader here, with Boonton (5-0, 2.4) in second. After Butler, Newton, Wood-Ridge, New Milford, Mountain Lakes and Pompton Lakes round out the top eight, there are two Big Central teams who have faced each other already this year: Dayton (4-1, 9.8) and Brearley (4-1, 10.4). The Bulldogs got the better of the Bears earlier this season, so if they end up back-to-back, Dayton would get the nod based on the top-down head-to-head rule. Mountain Lakes has a 7.4 UPR, so either or both still likely have a shot at a top eight finish.
Belvidere (4-1, 19.6, 20th) is well behind the top 16, and it may not be mathematically impossible, but it would be a longshot for the County Seaters to make it.
South Group 1
With Glassboro out of the way, up to Group 2 – based on the NJSIAA’s competitive balance formula that moves up public schools that can draw on players from outside their district – Schalick (5-0, 1.0 UPR) leads the pack, followed by traditional South Jersey power Paulsboro (3-2, 4.0). It’s down to seven to get to the first Big Central team in Delaware Valley (3-2, 6.6), and they should have a good shot at a top eight finish and first-round home game in scenic Alexandria.
Manville (4-1, 10.2) sits in ninth, but eighth place Salem (2-3) has a 6.80 UPR, 3.4 points ahead. That’s a lot of ground to make up even for the Mustangs, who have played just one team over 45 in UPR; that was a win over Brearley (60.09). But three of their next four opponents – Belvidere (61.65), Hillside (73.37) and Dayton (62.74) – could help, if they beat them. A loss to the best of those, Hillside, might not be debilitating, but winning out surely would help their chances of reaching the top eight.
Highland Park (5-0, 12.6) is one of the feel-good stories of 2026. Seeking their first playoff berth in 16 years – they last made it in 2010 – the Owls have three shutouts and have outscored their opponents 177-6 this season through five games. You read that right: they are allowing 1.2 points per game. (Next is Hillside, which has allowed just 17 all season.) The Owls should make it, and if they can beat the toughest two teams remaining on their schedule – Dayton and Brearley – they’ll be in no matter what. Drop one or both? We think they make it, looking at the teams behind them. It would be a shame if they didn’t.
Two spots out of the top 16 is South Hunterdon (3-2), having a rebound year under first year head coach Kyle Hart, but sitting at 18 could be a bit of a mirage; they have a 19.8 UPR, and 16th-place Florence (2-2) has a 13.4 UPR, 6.4 points ahead. That could be a lot of ground to make up with just JP Stevens and Dunellen among their three remaining opponents.
Discover more from Central Jersey Sports Radio
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.