What would playoff brackets look like after Week Three under new NJSIAA seeding procedure?

Once again this year, as many are aware, the NJSIAA tweaked the playoff seeing procedure. This time, it’s not about the math, but about how teams are slotted into sections after the field of 16 is set.

The first year of the NJ UPR system was 2018, using the Born Power Index and traditional power points. When the field of 16 was set in each of the North and South supersections, the teams were split by geography. The NJSIAA has long used Northing numbers, a five- or six-digit number (at New Jersey’s latitude) which represents how far North a team is. Higher numbers are further North. That first year, the Northernmost eight teams in the North supersections went into North 1, the remainder in North 2. In the South, the Northernmost teams went in Central, the remainder in the South.

That lead to some brackets having more higher seeds than the others, and the NJSIAA the following year – when it ditched the Born Power Index and went with the similar SI formula – moved to a snaking format, akin to how the NCAA seeds the college basketball tournament.

There, in four regions, the top four seeds were the No. 1 seeds, with the No. 5 overall in the bracket with No. 4, the sixth overall seed going with three, and so on, so that the overall No. 1 would get the overall No. 64 team in the event.

Here, it went back and forth. The top seed overall would be in a bracket with Nos. 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, and 16, while the second overall seed would be tops in the other section, playing with Nos. 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 24 and 15.

But then, travel reared its ugly head. Especially in the South, there’d be some long trips up to Central Jersey or vice versa. It wasn’t much of an issue in the north, where teams are more densely-packed, but then again, there’s generally more traffic to deal with North of Route 78.

So this year, the NJSIAA has done it in a hybrid way. The top two teams in the field of 16 still are the No. 1 seeds. The Nothernmost of those No. 1 seeds will be North 1 or Central, the other will be North 2 or South. Then, of the remaining 14 teams, the seven Northernmost teams will go with North 1 or Central, while the rest go to North 2 or South.

That could still result in unbalanced brackets, but it will very likely cut down on many of the travel issues that came up.

So, how would it look?

We didn’t do any of the tiebreakers or top-down, head-to-head jumps – which the NJSIAA will do on Cutoff Weekend – since we figured there are still many games to be played, and it wouldn’t be a true representation.

Below are charts for all 20 public playoff sections. Note that the North 1 or Central team is always the No. 1 seed with the higher Northing number. Some brief analysis follows each Group.

GROUP 5

Again, note that the higher Northing team goes in the Northernmost section. For example, Rancocas Valley and Washington Twp. are the top two seeds in the South 5 Supersection. Rancocas Valley (Northing 426362) is more North than Washington Twp. (331522) so Rancocas is the “Central” top seed, Washington the “South” top seed.

Then, the top seven Northing teams remaining (out of 14) go to Central, the rest in South. You’ll see the Central 5 teams range from 613927 (Franklin) down to 418784 (Toms River North). Then, the South 5 teams range from 380313 (Cherry Hill East) down to Atlantic City, the southernmost team, at 195062.

And finally, all the teams are seeded by UPR. We also included the UPR rank to make it easier to see the seeding in order. A Northing rank column is also inlcuded, though the the top-seed Northing rank is their overall rank in the section. (They don’t matter, though, because all that matters is that they are the top two seeds, and their relationship with each other, not the rest of the field.)

GROUP 4

Another point to notice is the balance of the sections. A good way to tell the strength of a section is by adding the UPR rank (essentially, the order or the top 16 seeds) for each. In a perfectly balanced section using snaking, each bracket should total 68. That would be perfectly even.

Here, Central 4 is a 71, while South 4 is a 65. That’s pretty balanced overall. Looking just at the overall seed numbers (UPR rank) visually, Central 4 has four of the top eight seeds, as does South, so we’d say these are pretty balanced sections.

GROUP 3

This is another balanced section in the South. Central 3 has four of the top eight seeds, as does South 3. But look at the North supersection. North 1 has five of the top eight seeds, a rating of 61, while North 2 has a rating of 75. That’s a little more uneven.

GROUP 2

Here’s one with the brackets definitely leaning toward a mammothly challenging South 2 bracket, but an “easier” Central 2 bracket. South has six of the top eight seeds, while Central only has the two teams tied for the second overall seed. Central has a rating of 80, while the South is 54.

Put another way, the average overall seed in South is a 6.75, while the average overall seed in Central is a 10. The lower numbers for South mean South is considered “stronger.”

GROUP 1

Again, the North sections in Group 1 are almost identical. Four of the top eight seeds are in each of the brackets, North 1 and North 2. North 1 has a rating of 71, North 2 is at 62. Those are fairly even.

The question is, next year, will the NJSIAA do a further tweak? And if so, what will they do?

Travel was an issue with snaking, but without it, there are unbalanced brackets. Finding a middle ground isn’t always easy, as you can see.

Don’t forget, Central Jersey Sports Radio will have analysis of the playoff chase over the final few weeks of the season, including Friday night playoff standing updates the last few weeks, as well as our Playoff Projection show on Cutoff Weekend, the evening of Saturday, October 25, with Mike Pavlichko hosting and Marcus Borden providing analysis.