This past season, the NJSIAA made a major overhaul to the power point formula it has used for years to determine what teams qualify for the state playoffs, and in what order. Group size was no longer a part of the equation, with the state’s high school athletic association coming around to the idea that group size is not necessarily – or, at least, less so these days – indicative of the strength of an opponent.
Just because a school has more students doesn’t mean they’re necessarily better at all sports.
But to add in a strength component, in all sports other than football, the NJSIAA decided to use OOWP, or the Opponent’s Opponent Winning Percentage. The formula adds .500 to that number, then multiplies it by the number of power points (including six quality points for a win, three for a tie, and the usual residuals).
For example, if Team A plays Team B with an 8-2 record, they would get six quality points and 24 residuals for a total of 30 points. You then take Team B’s total opponent winning percentage – lets say it’s .750 in this case, with a strong schedule – ad add .500 to get 1.25, then multiply that by 30 to get the number of power points for that game, which would be 37.5 in this case. Then each value is averaged over the course of the season, and teams are seeded based on that number.
Ideally, it includes two strength of schedule components. Residuals take into account the strength of the opponent, and the OOWP factors in the opponents’ strength of schedule. This means beating a 10-0 team that played winning teams is worth more than a 10-0 team that beat up on a bunch of two-win teams.
But coaches are creatures of habit, no matter the sport, or the state. Many were confused by the system. And some were looking at the standings throughout the year with a lot of question marks. Why was this team ranked so high when they played no one? Why is another team that’s six games over .500 in the bottom four?
So now that the baseball tournament has been seeded, and the first round played for public schools, how did it shake out?
Well, it might be too early to tell.
We looked at how many first round upsets there were in the six public playoff sections including at least one Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area team. This year, that includes Central Jersey Groups 1, 2 and 4, and North Jersey, Section 2 Groups 2, 3 and 4. We looked at overall upsets – any lower seeded team that beat a higher seeded team – and also examined the numbers minus any 9/8 upsets, which were among the most prevalent, and ideally the most evenly-matched teams.
There were 15 upsets among the 48 games in the 2025 first round, meaning 31 percent of all games didn’t go to chalk. Taking out any nine-seed beating an eight-seed – of which there were four this year – that number drops to eleven games, or 23 percent.
That looks like a large number compared with the old system in use last year, which saw just eight overall upsets in those same brackets, seven when taking out the 9/8 upsets, for a 17 percent and 15 percent upset rate, respectively.
But if you go back to 2023, there were 15 overall upsets (31 percent) but 12 taking out the 9/8 game, which is 25 percent, even more than this year. The 2022 season was again low, at seven and three, or 15 and six percent, the lowest in the last five seasons, while 2021, the year after COVID – which could be an anomaly due to many teams missing a year of growth and development – saw 13 total upsets and ten without the 9/8 games, or 27 and 21 percent.
About the only thing that’s clear is that the numbers are up and down over time, but while this year had a significant number of upsets, about the same – or more in the case of the 9/8 games – could be found in the 2023 season.
And remember, upsets don’t necessarily mean the seeding was wrong. Upsets happen all the time in sports, and it’s why we all watch. Who doesn’t want to root for the underdog? Sometimes teams take a while to come together with a short preseason, and they’re hotter at the end of the year than on April 1st (see St. Joseph-Metuchen). Sometimes they have injuries and limp to the finish line.
Bottom line: It’s too early for us to make a call on this. Check back next year, and we’ll see how they did.
Unless there are more changes coming for 2026.
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