Hard to believe we’re down to crunch time in the 2024 high school football playoff chase.
There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season before we get to the cutoff for public school. And everything gets simpler then, as the Strength Index values used to determine OSI get locked in after Week Seven.
Central Jersey Sports Radio projects 30 Big Central Conference public school teams will be in or are in contention for the playoffs. There’s no “magic number” to clinch, but many are securely in, with a small number on the bubble.
Some may need to win out to make it.
Here’s our section-by-section look based on the latest UPR standings after Week 5 posted on Gridiron New Jersey, which performs all the official playoff standing calculations, including power points, Strength Index, OSI and UPR:
NORTH GROUP 5
Top seeds: Union City and Ridgewood hold the top two spots at the moment, and would be the top seeds in their respective sections, with Union City in North 2, and Ridgewood in North 1.
Should be in: Ranked as high as they are, Piscataway (4-2) and Bridgewater-Raritan (3-3) at Nos. 4 and 5 are going to make it, and for the Chiefs, it’ll be their first playoff appearance since 2019. Piscataway may have to win out to hold on to a top-four-seed, guaranteeing home field through at least the sectional semis. The Panthers aren’t far behind, and could end up in the top four. And despite dropping four straight since a 2-0 start, Elizabeth (4-2) sits in ninth. They may not get a home game in the first round, but barring an 0-3 finish to the season, they should be in.
On the bubble: At least they’re on the right side. Plainfield (3-2) sits in 15th with a UPR of 15, while Linden (2-4) right behind them is at 16.2. Livingston (2-3, 17 UPR) and Clifton (2-4, 17.2 UPR) are not too far behind, and so is Union (0-6, 18 UPR). But with no wins, and the minimum being two, it would be a stretch to say the Farmers have a shot unless things turn around in a big way, and in a hurry.
SOUTH GROUP 5
Top Seeds: No surprise here: two-time defending Group 5 state champion Toms River North – the only Group 5 champion so far with group title play now only in its third year – is the overall No. 1 here. They’re 6-0, but 5-1 Washington Twp. is not far behind them, off by just 0.6 UPR. They trail TRN by three places in power points, so it remains to be seen if they can make up the difference.
Should be in: The highest-ranked team here is Hunterdon Central (4-2), which has a strong enough schedule that – if they can finish with three wins – might have a shot at a top eight seed and a first-round home game.
On the bubble: three Big Central teams are bunched up from No. 12 to 15: Franklin, Hillsborough, and Old Bridge, all of whom are 3-3. The Warriors have a 12.2 UPR and the Raiders and Knights are at 12.8; there’s not a lot of wiggle room there. After Eastern (3-3) at 15, South Brunswick (3-3) sits in the last playoff spot at the moment. But they have lost three straight and have taken a tumble lately. We think at least two of Franklin, Hillsborough and Old Bridge will make it, and likely all three, but each may need to win at least two of their last three games. What will help is that the No. 17 team – Williamstown – is 1-7. If they can’t get another win, they won’t make it no matter how high they finish; two is the minimum by NJSIAA rule. That’s one less team to fend off. After Bridgeton (5-1) at 19, there’s also Edison (3-3) at 20. That could be a longshot, but keep in mind they play St. Thomas Aquinas this week, a multiplier. A win would be huge, but a loss would garner 75 percent of their SI value instead of 50, and that’s a huge gain. So they’re not out of the running yet.
NORTH GROUP 4
Top Seeds: Despite a 6-0 record, wins over Linden and Perth Amboy – a combined 3-9 – dropped Woodbridge from first last week to third this week. Having winless Montgomery this week won’t help, but having Summit next week and multiplier St. Joseph-Metuchen (but they have to remain one). So for now, Morris Knolls (5-0) is at No. 1, with Ridge at No. 2. That would probably put the Red Devils as the top-seed in North Section 2, their traditional section.
Should be in: No doubt Woodbridge (6-0) and Phillipsburg (4-1) will be in the playoffs, it’s just a matter of where they’ll end up. It’s the Barrons in third and Stateliners in fourth at the moment, with P’burg 2.4 UPR points ahead fo fifth-place Northern Highlands (3-3). They way they’re playing, we peg them as a top four team. Watchung Hills (5-1) also should be in; the Warriors check in at 11. But after that, there’s a bunch of teams cose together, with some distance from 14 to 17. Rahway (4-2, 12.6 UPR) is tied with Randolph (2-3), followed by Westfield (2-3, 13 UPR) and Colonia (4-2, 13.2 UPR). We think they keep on their current pace they should be in. Nutley is in 16th at 3-3, but at 15.2 UPR, and the 17th place team, North Hunterdon (2-4) has a 17 UPR, and that might be too much to catch up to the Indians, Blue Devils or Patriots. But…
On the bubble: Clearly, North Hunterdon is on the bubble. At 2-4, with a 17 UPR, they’re 1.8 points out of the playoffs. The other thing to remember is: with just two wins, any win they get will give them a bigger jump than a team that’s 4-2, who’s already won a good number of games. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see the Lions make a move.
SOUTH GROUP 4 – NO BIG CENTRAL TEAMS IN THIS SECTION
NORTH GROUP 3
Top Seeds: Old Tappan (6-0) is first, followed by Montville (5-0), the only two undefeated teams in the supersection.
Should be in: At 4-1, Summit will be in the playoffs; they check in at No. 6. Cranford (3-2) at No. 11 is also a good bet, and we’ll see if they make a move to get in the top eight. The Hilltoppers could surge up if they beat Bernards (6-0) Thursday night in the “Big Central Game of the Week” presented by Bellamy & Son Paving.
On the bubble: Carteret is at No. 20 with a 3-3 record and a 19.2 UPR, and they need to catch at least 16th place Snyder (3-3, 16.6 UPR). With less than a three point difference, it can be done. The good news is two of the teams ahead of them only have one win: Roxbury (17th) and Paramsu (19th), both of whom are 1-5. If they don’t get a second win, they’re not eligible.
SOUTH GROUP 3:
Top Seeds: Somerville (6-0) is the overall top seed, and the Pioneers may have it close to being locked down. They are first in both power points and UPR. And the team behind them in second, Hopewell Valley (6-0) is second in power points and third in OSI. The second-place OSI team is Mainland (4-2), but they’re in third.
NORTH GROUP 2
Top Seeds: Glen Rock (5-0) and Hanover Park (5-0) hold the top two seeds, with defending regional champ Westwood (5-1) third.
Should be in: No doubt Bernards (6-0) is in. They may only get a first round home game guarantee, sitting in seventh, but they could get a big bump with a win over Summit (4-1) Thursday night in the “Big Central Game of the Week” presented by Bellamy & Son Paving.
SOUTH GROUP 2
Top Seeds: Camden (4-2) holds the top spot, with a tougher schedule – according to the math – than second-place Rumson-Fair Haven (4-0). But the Panthers are just 0.2 UPR points ahead of the Bulldogs.
Should be in: They likely won’t be in the top eight, meaning they’d start the playoffs on the road, but Metuchen (4-1, 10th) and Delaware Valley (4-1, 11th) look solidly in.
On the bubble: Oh, here’s Spotswood again, trying to avoid getting the shaft for the second time in three years. They missed the playoffs in 2022 at 6-3, but narrowly made it last year at 8-1. They might need to go 8-1 this year, which would have to include a home win over South Hunterdon (3-2). the Eagles are the best team left on their schedule, and they’ll play it next Friday night, their first game on their brand-new turf field, and with temporary lights to boot; their permanent lights had their installation delayed and will be fully ready after the season.
NORTH GROUP 1
Top Seeds: Cedar Grove (6-0) is first in all three metrics: power points, OSI and UPR. Butler (5-0) is an across-the-baord No. 2. But New Providence (5-1) is just 1.6 UPR points behind the Bulldogs. The Pioneers aren’t without a shot here.
Should be in/On the bubble: We’re not sure about Belvidere. Not the team, no they’ve improved and are 5-1 this season. But they’re in 14th with a strong record, and all the teams behind them, although close, have just two wins. Can they make a surge? If the Seaters keep winning, we think they’re in. But their schedule is not easy, with road games at South Hunterdon and a home game at Middlesex sandwiched around a likely win at North Warren.
SOUTH GROUP 1
Top Seeds: Woodstown (5-0) is first, followed by Schalick (4-2) and Haddon Township (3-1) tied for second.
Should be in: Middlesex (4-2) is a solid bet here, and has a good shot as well at making (staying in) the top eight, to get at least a first-round home game. For now, we think Manville (4-2) is a “should be in” as they are in 12th, with a 12.6 UPR. The first team out in 17th is Audubon at 1-3, but a 17.8 UPR, 5.2 behind the Mustangs. That’s a lot of ground to make up, but ultimately five teams would have to pass them. That’s a tall order.
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