Saturday is the cutoff for power points for NJSIAA state playoff qualification, and as many as a half dozen teams from the Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area are in the running for top seeds in their respective sections.
We take a look below at each area team, section by section. Playoff seeds are determined by the traditional power point method of six points for a win, none for a loss; three residuals from every win by a team you beat, one residual for every win by a team you lost to; and quality points equal to the size school you beat (four for a Group 4, etc.).
Keep in mind, the NJSIAA only counts a team’s 16 highest power point values toward the standings. That means that since wins are often worth a lot more than losses, a team with 16 wins is less likely to make up ground with another win than a team with fewer than 16 wins. (A team’s 17th win would replace one of its other wins, which would likely be a high point value. A team’s 14th win would likely replace a loss, meaning the net gain is more.)
Our analysis is based on official power point standings published on NJ.com as of 9:00 am May 13, 2024.
Central Jersey Group 4: This is almost as close as you can be to the top seed without actually having the top seed. Old Bridge (16-6) is just one point behind first-place Manalapan (14-9), which leads the Knights in power points by a 475.5 to 474.5 margin. Based on the explanation above regarding the best 16 scores counting, the Braves have a little more room to gain ground than Old Bridge, since they have 14 wins, and the Knights have 16. They might also have to watch out for Jackson Memorial (12-9, 451) right behind them, but probably not current fourth place team South Brunswick (11-11, 396). We think the Vikings end up anywhere from a four- to a seven-seed. It’s a good distance down the list to the next area team, Sayreville (10-8, 360) in ninth, but the Bombers could jump a few places with some wins this week. Hillsborough (8-11, 321) is right behind them, followed by East Brunswick (6-12, 294) in 11th. Then, after West Windsor-Plainsboro South, the last two area teams are in 13th and 14th place: Montgomery (6-13, 268) and North Brunswick (6-11, 267). It’s not a guarantee, but we think the Cougars and Raiders are a good bet to make the playoffs here. They could mathematically be on the bubble, but they both look to be well on the good side of it.
Central Jersey Group 3: Only two area teams even contend in this section, but only one of them is on the right side of the bubble, and just barely. That’s JFK, which is 8-9 with 295.5 power points. They’re just 10.5 points out of 14th, but there are also two teams within ten points of them on the bottom end. The closest is Brick Township (8-11, 289), and right behind them in Somerville (7-13, 286), which has an important Somerset County Tournament game against Manville Monday that would help enormously if it turns out to be a win for the Pioneers.
Central Jersey Group 2: Just 34 points separate current first place team Governor Livingston (18-3, 525) and Spotswood (17-2-1, 491). Both have reached that 16-win milestone, though, so it might be tough for GL to extend that lead, or for the Chargers to even catch them. But we think Spotswood is fairly well locked in to a top two seed at least, which would give them home field through at least the sectional semifinals. The next area team is Carteret (12-6, 372) in seventh, and we think they should finish in the top eight, as they next team behind them – Nottingham (11-6, 337) is pretty far behind. But South River (9-10, 333) is within four points of eighth place and could make a run at a first round home game. Sitting in 16th, just 2.5 points on the right side of the bubble is East Brunswick Magnet (9-7, 255). For what its worth, they’re just behind last year’s champion, Rumson-Fair Haven, which is just 6-11 this season.
Central Jersey Group 1: Two-time defending champion Point Pleasant Beach (18-2, 447) is well in first over South Hunterdon (by 92 points) so the Garnet Gulls look like a lock at the top seed here. The highest CJSR-area team is Middlesex, in fourth, despite a 7-14 record. They have 330 points, and are just 25 behind second-place South Hunterdon. The Jays have wins over some large schools, as well as over schools with major win totals, like Woodbridge and Spotswood. Right behind them in fifth place is South Amboy (11-2, 311). They might be dueling it out this week with Middlesex for that fourth spot. After Riverside (9-6, 295) in sixth is Manville (10-5, 282), which looks a good bet for at least a first round home game. Henry Hudson is right behind in 8th at 9-7, with 280 power points, but there’s a big drop in points to No. 9. Dunellen (10-9, 241) sits there, followed even further back by Highland Park (8-8, 195) in tenth place. Further down the standings, Somerset Tech (4-8, 164) appears to be in, currently in 15th. Perth Amboy Magnet (4-11, 134) is on the wrong side of the bubble, 20 points behind 16th place New Egypt (2-16).
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: Bridgewater-Raritan and Ridge are No. 1 and No. 2, but there’s a lot of distance – more than 100 points – between them. So we’re going to say the Panthers have clinched thee top seed, with an 18-3 record and 618 power points, while Ridge still may need to fend off some teams behind them at 15-7 with 511.5 points. Namely, Phillipsburg (15-5, 504.5) is just seven pojnts back, and Westfield (16-3, 499.5) isn’t out of striking distance either. Even Scotch Plains-Fanwood (15-7, 490) could threaten the Red Devils. The last three teams in the top eight are all from the CJSR coverage area. Woodbridge (15-6, 487) is in sixth, followed by Edison (13-8, 417) and Watchung Hills (11-11, 394.5). All are likely to finish in the top eight and open the playoffs at home. Further down the list, all these teams look like they’re in, with a big dropoff from 16th to 17th place, and even more to 15th, but it just remains to be seen in what order they finish. Piscataway (9-8, 305) is in 12th place, followed by Perth Amboy (6-13, 296), Franklin (7-9, 277.5) and JP Stevens (6-14, 257) in 15th. Union (6-12) is 35 points back, and Linden, in 17th, at 5-9 has 182 points, 40 behind the Farmers, and 75 behind Stevens.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: South Plainfield (18-3, 560.5) is currently in first here, but they may need to keep winning to hold off Randolph, which is 16-6 and just 16.5 points behind, with 544. That’s the only team that should threaten the Tigers. Only two other teams even play in this section. Colonia (13-5, 409) currently sits in sixth, and isn’t likely to rise much, but should stay in the top eight. North Plainfield (5-14, 237) currently sits in 16th place, just 19 points ahead of 6-10 Rahway with 218 points, and Nutley is not far behind either at 3-15 with 215.5 points, so the Canucks aren’t assured a playoff spot yet.
North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: Only one area team resides here: Bernards (7-9-1, 312.5) sits in ninth place, but could go at least as high as eight. That spot is currently occupied by Hackettstown, but not by a lot. They’re 8-7, with 314 power points, just 1.5 ahead of the Mountaineers. Passaic Valley (12-7, 425.5) currently sits atop the section.
Non-Public South A: While they’re not likely within reach of first-place Red Bank Catholic (14-6, 478), Immaculata sits in fourth with a 13-4 record and 408 points. We’re think they’re solidly in fourth, as it’s a good distance ahead to third-place CBA (13-5, 446.5), although fifth-place Donovan Catholic (123-6, 390) also could make a run. Down in ninth is St. Joseph-Metuchen (6-16, 256.5) and Pingry (7-9, 243.5) is in 11th place. This is a 12-team section, and with no one having fewer than six wins, we don’t think anyone will drop out here, so this looks like it’ll be a 12-team field, with the top four getting first round byes.
Non-Public North B: With a couple fewer wins, it might not be out of the question for St. Thomas Aquinas to challenge St. Mary-Rutherford for the top spot. St. Mary sits in first at 14-6 with 401 points; the Trojans are 12-6 with 376. So they have a couple more chances for bigger net gains with wins than St. Mary. Third-place Montclair-Kimberley (7-13, 311.5) might not have a chance at either, but fourth-place Gill St. Bernard’s (8-9-1, 287.5) might have a crack at them. And there are a couple more teams tightly packed behind Gill. Morristown-Beard (7-12) is in a fifth-place tie with Rutgers Prep (6-11), both with 263 points. While there are 13 teams in this section, officially, Calvary Christian didn’t field a team this year (though they’re shown in the official standings, albeit at 0-0) and Wardlaw-Hartridge is 0-10. We suspect they’ll opt out. Timothy Christian is 2-10 with 126 points, and if the Rams drop out, the Tigers would finish last in 11th place.
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