Halfway to the state cutoff, what GMC and Skyland teams have a top seed in sight?

More than four weeks into the high school basketball season, we’re less than four weeks away from the NJSIAA cutoff and seeding meeting.

Saturday, February 10th is the cutoff date, with the seeds coming out the following Monday.

So far, we think at least a half dozen teams have a shot at a top seed, which would guarantee home court advantage right through the sectional semifinals. Some have a much better shot than others, but there’s still a lot of basketball to be played.

The top 16 point values count towards a team’s power point totals. Teams who have fewer than 16 wins in the weeks leading up to the cutoff generally can make bigger gains than a team that’s won 16 or more already. More wins for those teams tend to replace larger numbers than replacing the value for a loss.

Here’s a section-by-section breakdown of all sections with teams from the Greater Middlesex Conference and Somerset County, based on power point totals retrieved from NJ.com (which calculates official points for the NJSIAA) posted as of 1 pm Saturday, January 20th:

Central Jersey Group 4: There’s a lot of basketball to play here, but right now Monroe (11-3) is tied with Howell (10-2) at 282 points, both just 19 behind first-place Hightstown (11-2, 301). East Brunswick (8-5, 247), South Brunswick (6-6), and Old Bridge (5-9, 210) are behind them, but would have a huge mountain to climb. Sayreville – despite a 1-14 record – has 100 points and sits in 16th place

Central Jersey Group 3: The top spot is held by Ocean Township (13-2) at the moment, with 339 points, just 38 ahead of Somerville (11-2) with 301. The Pioneers might have a legit shot depending how the next few weeks play out. The next closest CJSR-area team in South Plainfield, sitting in 8th at 8-3 with 175 points. Carteret (7-5, 158) is in 12th, with JFK (1-13, 113) in 16th.

Central Jersey Group 2: No one from the area will get a top seed here, as New Providence leads the pack with 458 points, and fifth-place Metuchen is first from the CJSR-area at 10-4, with 291 points. Spotswood (9-3) has 246 points and sits in 8th, while South River (10-2) is just three points behind. They two were supposed to play in South River Friday night, but that game was moved to Saturday, the 27th, due to the snowstorm. Bound Brook (8-3, 203) sits in 11th.

Central Jersey Group 1: Heading into the weekend, two GMC teams head this section. Dunellen is 10-3 with 215 points, two ahead of Middlesex, even though the Blue Jays are just 7-8 (213 points). After Shore (7-5, 186) and New Egypt (8-3, 158), there are two other GMC teams who are close enough to crack the top four, though whether both can is a question mark at this semi-early stage yet. Highland Park is in fifth at 7-5 with 152 points, while Manville is 5-8, with 147 points. Further down the line, two teams that should safely be in are Perth Amboy Magnet (12th, 4-5, 83), South Amboy (14th, 3-9, 7-8). On the bubble in 15th is Woodbridge Magnet (2-9, 66) in 15th, and Somerset Tech, which is 0-8 with 47 points and just outside the bubble by eight points. Then again, even just one or two wins would probably bump that number up dramatically.

North Jersey, Section 1 – Group 4: Even though JP Stevens – having a real nice year at 11-2 – sits in third with 263 power points, they’re a long way from first place Bayonne (12-1, 337), but the Hawks are just six points behind Hunterdon Central (10-5, 269) with a lot of time left. That would at least get them home court through the sectional semis. The middle of the pack is stuffed with out local teams. In seventh is Hillsborough (7-5, 244), followed by Piscataway (7-6, 234), Woodbridge (8-6, 209), and Ridge (5-9, 206) separated by just 38 points. There’s another bunch toward the bottom of the top 16, with Edison (6-10, 172) in 13th place, followed by Franklin (6-9, 169) and Watchung Hills (2-10, 159).

North Jersey, Section 2 – Group 3: Chatham sits in first at 13-1 with 384 points, and there are two GMC teams behind them where it’s possible they could make up ground. North Plainfield is close, but the Canucks (13-2, 344) have the same amount of wins as Chatham, so unless they pull off a huge power point win somewhere, that might be difficult to overcome. Colonia, on the other hand, is 10-5, with 314 points. Yes, they’re 73 behind, but they have three fewer wins. That means with three more wins, they would likely gain more points than Chatham or North Plainfield.

North Jersey, Section 2 – Group 2: The only CJSR-area team here is Bernards, which sits in 11th place at 7-5 with 199 points. The top team is Madison, at 11-2, with 336.

Non-Public North B: Defending champ Morris Catholic – which beat Rutgers Prep in the Group B state final last year – is in fifth, even though they’re 12-0. Gill St. Bernard’s (12-2) has 300 points and is in third, and probably won’t finish much higher – or lower – than that. Montclair Immaculate (12-3, 446) leads the section, and Saddle River Day (11-3, 396) is in second, 96 points ahead of Gill and with one less win. Roselle Catholic (8-3) is 53 points behind them. Other area teams in the section – which only has 16 teams, so everyone who wants to be in will be – include Wardlaw Hartridge (9th, 7-3, 146) and Mother Seton (10th, 6-2, 127).

Non-Public South B: It may not be a lock yet, mathematically speaking, but Rutgers Prep is a pretty good bet, the way they’ve been playing, to hold on to the top spot they currently hold, at 12-3 with 375 points. Behind them are Wildwood Catholic (13-1, 334) in second, and St. Rose of Belmar (11-4, 323) in third. Those are the only two with a slim hope to catch the Argonauts. Down at the bottom of the section are Timothy Christian (13th, 6-4, 129) and Calvary Christian (15th, 2-6, 76).

Non-Public South A: With a 10-4 record, St. Thomas Aquinas has 322 points, and is just 54 behind the two teams tied for first: Our Lady Of Mercy (14-1, 376) and Red Bank Catholic (11-2, 376). The Trojans might have a shot, especially with fewer wins than both of them. Only 14 teams are in this section, so everyone can make it. Pingry sixth is sixth at 8-3, with 242 points. Then Mount St. Mary (6-7, 185) is tied for eighth with Paul VI (7-4), followed by Immaculata in tenth at 6-5, with 180 points.

CORRECTION: This story was updated to say that a team’s top 16 power point games count toward the standings. An earlier version said it was 14 games.