What’s the toughest division in the Big Central in 2023?

No one knows how the 2023 high school football season will play out when it kicks off August 25th, but the NJSIAA’s Strength Index – the number used to calculate OSI in the state’s playoff formula – can give us a clue as to how strong teams are heading into the year.

That number will change for every team – some by a little, and some by a lot – as this season’s games are played, and they paint the picture of each team.

At this early date, the American Silver would appear to be the most challenging division, if you take the average Strength Index values of its five teams – Bridgewater-Raritan, Hillsborough, Hunterdon Central, Phillipsburg, and Ridge – which comes out to a 54.81 value.

That’s the second year in a row that division has had the highest average among its teams.

Last year, the United Gold – with Cranford, Rahway, Scotch Plains-Fanwood, Summit and St. Thomas Aquinas was No. 2, with a 54.76 average SI. That division slipped a bit, overtaken this year by the Liberty Silver, which has only four teams: Montgomery, North Hunterdon, Plainfield and Watchung Hills.

That makes sense because those four schools went from a combined 15-24 in 2021 to 30-13 last season, led by North Hunterdon’s North 2, Group 4 championship. The Lions went from 5-5 to 11-2, while Watchung Hills went from 2-8 to 7-3, and Montgomery improved from 3-6 to 7-2. Plainfield basically held steady, going from 5-5 to 5-6.

This year, the Liberty Silver is at a 52.06, while the United Gold is at a 52.00 average SI.

Below are the composite average Strength Index values for all twelve Big Central Conference divisions (scroll to the bottom of this story for a list of teams in each division):

Now, all of that just tells us where the most highly-ranked teams (in Strength Index value) are placed. But who plays the toughest schedule?

Of course, most teams play nine games in a season, and with all but one of the Big Central’s divisions having five teams, that means only four conference opponents. The rest of the teams are from other divisions, or elsewhere around New Jersey.

Collectively, the average OSI – Opponent Strength Index – can tell us who has the toughest strength of schedule. We simply average the SI value of a team’s opponents, and for our purposes, we don’t include Thanksgiving Day games, which happen after the playoff cutoff and wouldn’t factor into whether a team makes the postseason.

The American Silver comes up again, checking in at 66.24, with the American Gold – with Elizabeth, Somerville, St. Joseph-Metuchen, Union and Westfield – at 64.99 not far behind. The United Gold comes in third, followed by the Liberty Silver.

Interestingly, the Big Central’s two divisions that have its smallest schools – the Freedom Gold and Silver both had average OSIs below 50 last year. Only one of them is this year, and not by much.

The Freedom Gold – with Brearley, Dayton, Highland Park, Roselle Park and Spotswood – went from a 43.81 preseason average OSI in 2022 to a 49.46 this season. That’s good news, because better competition can result in a better OSI, and a better chance at making the playoffs.

The Freedom Silver – with Belvidere, Dunellen, Manville, Middlesex and South Hunterdon – went from a 48.31 preseason average OSI in 2022 to a 50.75 this year. Again, good news!

Below are the composite average OSI’s (Strength of Schedule) for all twelve Big Central Divisions:

For reference, here are the teams that make up each of the 12 Big Central Conference Divisions:

• American Gold: Elizabeth, St. Joseph-Metuchen, Somerville, Union, Westfield
• American Silver: Bridgewater-Raritan, Hillsborough, Hunterdon Central, Phillipsburg, Ridge
• Freedom Gold: Brearley, Highland Park, Roselle Park, Spotswood, Dayton
• Freedom Silver: Belvidere, Dunellen, Manville, Middlesex, South Hunterdon
• Liberty Gold: Colonia, JFK, Linden, Perth Amboy, Woodbridge
• Liberty Silver: Montgomery, North Hunterdon, Plainfield, Watchung Hills
• National Gold: East Brunswick, Monroe, Old Bridge, Piscataway, South Brunswick
• National Silver: Edison, Franklin, New Brunsiwck, North Brunswick, Sayreville
• Patriot Gold: Bernards, Bound Brook, Delaware Valley, South River, Voorhees
• Patriot Silver: Hillside, Johnson, Metuchen, New Providence, Roselle
• United Gold: Cranford, Rahway, St. Thomas Aquinas, Scotch Plains-Fanwood, Summit
• United Silver: Carteret, Governor Livingston, JP Stevens, North Plainfield, South Plainfield