With NJSIAA baseball cutoff date fast approaching, four area teams have legit shot at two top seeds

Surprise, surprise, as good as the larger school have been in the Greater Middlesex Conference and Somerset County, that two teams from each have a realistic shot at getting top seeds in the NJSIAA state Tournament, whose cutoff is coming up this Wednesday.

That means most teams have about one or two more games that can boost their chances a lot or a little.

The NJSIAA counts the 16 best power point totals on a team’s resume. That means if a team plays 18 games, the best 16 count.

It also means that teams with fewer than 16 wins can really make up ground, since losses usually mean significantly lower point totals. On the other hand, teams that have won 16 games already may be hard pressed to make major gains this week unless they beat outstanding teams.

Teams also get residuals from an opponent’s first 16 games. So if they beat a team that’s 10-9, if games 17, 18 an 19 were wins, those don’t count toward residuals; they would only get residuals on the first seven wins by that opponent.

Here’s a look at CJSR-area teams as we head into the home stretch before the cutoff, with our analysis based on official power point standings as published on NJ.com as of 9:30 pm Sunday.

GMC Red leads Central Group 4…

The top two teams in power points in the Central Jersey Group 4 section are North Brunswick and Old Bridge, who are tied dead-on for first place with 553 power points. The Raiders are 15-5, and the Knights 14-8. Each team’s lowest score that counts is 13 (North Brunswick for beating Notre Dame and Old Bridge for beating Millburn).

North Brunswick has three games on tap this week: at Metuchen, then home to JP Stevens and Colonia. Old Bridge has Sayreville Monday and visits Perth Amboy Tuesday. The game against the Panthers – should they win – would get them 16 points, while Sayreville would get them 52, for a total of 68. But you’d have to drop their 13 point game, and a 19 point game. That 32 points leaves them with a net gain of 66, according to our projections.

Could they catch North Brunswick? Maybe, because the Raiders have an extra win. And none of their three opponents have more than ten wins, and some may have come after their first 16 games. There’s still a lot of baseball – five games – to be exact.

Both should be comfortably ahead of Jackson Memorial, which – at 16-5 – has mostly topped out in wins and has 495 points, 58 points both the Raiders and Knights.

Then, there are three more GMC teams from fifth to seventh: Sayreville (13-7), Monroe (11-7), and East Brunswick (8-11), all of which are fairly good bets to finish in the top eight and get at least a first round home game out of the deal.

Montogmery (9-9, 314 points) is probably in the bottom eight, sitting in 11th at the moment, followed by South Brunswick (8-12, 312) and Hillsborough (8-12, 310 points). They could all shift around a lot, with only a 9.5 point difference between the ninth-place team (Howell, 7-11, 319.5) and Hillsborough in 13th.

Ridge leads Bridgewater-Raritan and field in North 2, Group 4…

With 19 wins already, Ridge (19-3) has a 55.5 point lead over second-place Bridgewater-Raritan (15-5) in the section, by a 557.5-502.5 point margin. The Panthers’ lowest counted power point total is 13, and they have three games the next three days, home against Scotch Plains-Fanwood, then at Phillipsburg and at Pope John. Neither of the first two likely move the needle enough, and even though Pope John is a 30-residual point opponent, it’s doubtful they can cover that much ground, but who knows?

Woodbridge (16-5) is 11 points behind Bridgewater, and could give them a run; that’s not a lot to make up, although the Barrons have won 16 already. But two losses – to Sayreville – are their lowest two power point totals. They have Linden (2-14) Monday, which doesn’t do much, but Metuchen on Wednesday (8-10) is worth 29 points by our math.

Right now, Edison (12-9, 362 points) has the eighth sport, but is only 15 points ahead of Scotch Plains-Fanwood, and 21 ahead of Watchung Hills (8-11, 341). It’s unlikely they finish higher than 8th, as they are 44 points behind seventh-place Westfield. But it’s in the middle of the pack where teams have multiple losses in the power point calculation that two or three wins this week can make a huge impact.

Elsewhere, Franklin (9-10) is in 12th, JP Stevens (16-5) in 14th, and Piscataway (5-14) tied with Newark East Side (7-12) with 210 points each.

Other public sections…

• Central Group 3: While Somerville (11-8) and JFK (11-9) sit in 10th and 12th, respectively, they’re both around 20-30 points from the eighth- and seventh-place teams, so a first round home game may not be entirely out of the question.
• Central Group 2: There are three area teams here that have a good shot at a top four seed, which would mean home games for at least the first two rounds. Spotswood sits in third at 16-5 with 431 points; the Chargers likely won’t finish higher as second-place Rumson is 69 points ahead of them, and Spotswood already has won 16 games. But South River isn’t far behind the Chargers with 403 points, and they’re only 12-6. Carteret (14-6) is just four points behind the Rams, with 399 points. East Brunswick Magnet (10-6, 307.5 points) sits in 16th; they are 17.5 points ahead of 17th-place Holmdel. Not a lock, but a decent chance to stay in the field.
• Central Group 1: Even without one of their best seasons, Middlesex (11-6) playing a challenging schedule in the GMC White has them in second place in the section, albeit a solid 47 points behind leader Point Pleasant Beach. Yes, those are the same Garnet Gulls who beat the Blue Jays at Mountainview Park for the title last year, on the same field where they lost to Middlesex in 2021, the year they Blue Jays won the statewide Group 1 title with a 13-inning marathon victory over New Providence. But look out for Shore Regional, which is just three points behind them, despite being 9-10. South Amboy (12-4) and Somerset Tech (10-5) are tied for fourth with 297 points each. Manville (10-7) is in sixth with 265.5 points, and all of them should finish well in the top eight, and get at least one home game. Dunellen (8-6) checks in 12th, and should solidly be in the field.

• North 2, Group 3: You have to go all the way down to seventh to find the first area team, where South Plainfield (11-12) has 455 points, a 64-point lead over the ninth-place team, so there’s a good bet they get a first round home game. Colonia is next from the area, all the way down at 13 with a 9-11 record and 291 points. But they appear to be safely in the field.
• North 2, Group 2: After Hanover Park (17-3, 454 points) at No. 1, then Rutherford (13-9, 437), you have Bernards at 14-6, with 410 points. Even the two-seed might be a stretch for them, but they have two strong opponents this week, with a road game at Madison Monday and a home game against Montville on Wednesday.

St. Joe’s looking at a top-two seed…

• South Group A: They probably won’t catch Red Bank Catholic, but St. Joseph-Metuchen could end up as the two- or three-seed here. They are 15-7 with 539 power points, one ahead of St. Augustine, which is 15-6. Pingry (9-8) currently is in ninth, and Immaculata (5-12) is tenth. Everyone gets in here; at most, it’s a 12-team field.
• North Group B: At 14-6, St. Thomas Aquinas sits in second, 26 points behind first-place St. Mary_Rutherford (15-7), by a 463-437 power point margin. Rutgers Prep sits in third at 11-11, with 389 points, and definitely won’t fall lower, but probably won’t finish higher. The reigning Somerset County Tournament Champion is much better than that 11-11 record would indicate; the Argonauts are 9-4 since a 2-7 start. Down at eighth is Gill St. Bernard’s (5-14, 233 points), followed by Timothy Christian (4-10, 170). Wardlaw-Hartridge (1-12-1) would be the 12th and final seed, with 85 points.