Ridge leads Big Central in final 2022 Strength Index rankings

With the 2022 high school football season now complete, the numbers are in: five state sectional finalists and two champions. And who knows what 2023 will bring.

But according to Central Jersey Sports Radio’s unofficial Strength Index calculations, Ridge came in with the highest rating of all 59 teams at the end of the year.

Strength Index doesn’t so much take into account wins and losses. Rather it looks at how a team performed against another team relative to their ratings. A team consistently ranked 30 points lower than its opponents that loses all its games by just a field goal would increase its Strength Index, the thinking being that the team is better than the rankings indicated.

Those numbers would indicate Ridge is a “tough out.” At 7-3, their three losses came by 18 to North 2 Group 5 finalist Phillipsburg, by 10 to Hillsborough (before injuries forced the Raiders into their third-string quarterback), and by seven to North 1 Group 4 finalist Ramapo.

All five teams that ended up in sectional finals finished in the top eleven, with North Hunterdon second, Phillipsburg, Hillside and Edison fifth through seventh, and Brearley at No. 11.

Westfield and Roselle saw the biggest gains, nearly 20 points, from the start of the 2022 season. Westfield was 4-6 a year ago, but finished 8-3 this year. Roselle was 5-6 last year, and started this season 0-4, but didn’t lose the rest of the way, finishing with a strong 8-4 record.

The biggest falls were seen by North Plainfield (-23.85), Belvidere (-27.25) and Bound Brook (-32.43).

Overall, 30 teams increased their SI rating, while 29 saw their Strength Index value fall.

The end-of-year SI values are used to determine next year’s starting numbers, with all teams reduced or increased towards 60, which is considered the mid-point.

For example, a team rated 90 – which is 30 above the midway point of 60 – would see its SI reduced by 10, or one-third of 30, and start next season at 80. Alternatively, a team rated 51 – which is nine points below the midway of 60 – would increase by three points, or one-third of nine, and start next season as a 54.

Those Strength Index numbers – which change throughout the season – are used to calculate the Opponent Strength Index, which is 60% of the NJ UPR formula to determine playoff seeding. Playing strong opponents – not just beating them – helps a team’s OSI.

Knowing the starting values for next year can help leagues create favorable schedules for their teams to make the playoffs, and can help schools know what kind of out-of-conference opponents they shoudl schedule.

The average SI value among Big Central teams in the final unofficial 2022 calculations was 58.1.

Below are the 59 teams in the Big Central, with their starting SI, final SI, and the amount of change:

	TEAM	2022 START	FINAL SI	CHANGE
1	Ridge	73.78	90.34	16.56
2	North Hunterdon	69.49	84.49	15.00
3	Westfield	63.34	83.20	19.86
4	Cranford	76.27	83.11	6.84
5	Phillipsburg	72.33	83.02	10.69
6	Hillside	68.12	82.04	13.92
7	Edison	62.52	80.57	18.05
8	St. Thomas Aquinas	72.84	78.96	6.12
9	Watchung Hills	60.21	78.38	18.17
10	North Brunswick	69.09	75.58	6.49
11	Brearley	61.53	75.05	13.52
12	Bernards	66.06	73.17	7.11
13	Hillsborough	84.87	71.05	-13.82
14	Roselle	49.55	69.28	19.73
15	Montgomery	60.23	69.18	8.95
16	Somerville	75.37	68.95	-6.42
17	Piscataway	52.05	68.77	16.72
18	Plainfield	54.32	68.46	14.14
19	Delaware Valley	68.01	67.53	-0.48
20	Summit	61.84	67.51	5.67
21	Manville	48.84	66.40	17.56
22	Union	82.23	65.32	-16.91
23	Hunterdon Central	54.25	65.22	10.97
24	Woodbridge	63.54	64.74	1.20
25	Linden	59.52	64.25	4.73
26	Bridgewater-Raritan	66.35	64.21	-2.14
27	St. Joseph-Metuchen	63.77	63.76	-0.01
28	South Hunterdon	59.36	62.99	3.63
29	Sayreville	71.86	59.94	-11.92
30	Colonia	70.41	59.90	-10.51
31	South Brunswick	59.62	59.28	-0.34
32	Johnson	42.86	58.76	15.90
33	South Plainfield	51.96	56.61	4.65
34	Carteret	53.03	56.54	3.51
35	Rahway	65.11	56.54	-8.57
36	Old Bridge	61.78	55.15	-6.63
37	East Brunswick	65.19	54.73	-10.46
38	New Providence	66.80	52.38	-14.42
39	Scotch Plains-Fanwood	59.60	51.25	-8.35
40	Elizabeth	58.63	49.97	-8.66
41	Monroe	53.15	48.80	-4.35
42	Franklin	57.37	48.07	-9.30
43	Voorhees	48.92	47.10	-1.82
44	Perth Amboy	42.43	46.26	3.83
45	JFK	52.81	44.18	-8.63
46	Roselle Park	39.91	42.68	2.77
47	Spotswood	34.01	40.58	6.57
48	Middlesex	51.81	39.30	-12.51
49	New Brunswick	58.07	38.87	-19.20
50	Dunellen	34.58	37.20	2.62
51	Governor Livingston	44.80	36.56	-8.24
52	Dayton	46.51	36.11	-10.40
53	South River	47.85	35.33	-12.52
54	North Plainfield	56.78	32.93	-23.85
55	Metuchen	46.59	29.48	-17.11
56	JP Stevens	33.37	25.41	-7.96
57	Belvidere	51.55	24.30	-27.25
58	Bound Brook	54.26	21.83	-32.43
59	Highland Park	26.32	15.65	-10.67

As for the rest of the state, it’s little surprise who’s at the top of the rankings: the two teams widely considered the best among their peers this season in the non-public and public realms.

Non-Public Group A champion Bergen Catholic finished with the highest Strength Index value in the state, at 111.19. While the Crusaders only gained 15.83 points this year, the next team on the list gained a lot more: Toms River North. The Mariners – the state’s first-ever Group 5 champion, and first-ever 14-0 team in state history – ended the year with a 107.01 SI rating.

Ridge – tops in the BCC – finished 11th overall in the state, with north Hunterdon – second in the BCC – at 29, and Westfield (33rd), Cranford (34th), Phillipsburg (36th), Hillside (40th) and Edison (43rd) all in the Top 50.

The Super Football Conference had seven of its teams in the top ten, while the Shore Conference had two and the West Jersey Football League had one. Six of the top ten were public schools.

Below is a downloadable PDF version of the full Strength Index values – according to Central Jersey Sports Radio’s unofficial calculations – for every team in the state of New Jersey, including starting 2022 SI number, final number, and the amount of change.