How did we do? Central Jersey Sports Radio’s preseason predictions for the postseason largely held true

Way back in August, when the weather was sweltering as practice was starting, we decided to do take a look at the numbers to see each team’s road to the playoffs, and how challenging – or not – it might be.

The basic question was this: How many wins would it take each team to make the playoffs?

Back in the good ole days of power points, when they were much simpler, the answer was simpler as well: You had to be at least .500 through eight games before the cutoff. That meant four wins.

Now the minimum is two, so basically anyone can get in as long as the power points, OSI, and UPR work out.

Different teams had different numbers of minimum wins to get in, based on their strength of schedule. How did we figure out strength of schedule?

Very easily.

As complicated as the NJ UPR system instituted by the NJSIAA in 2018 is, it gives us a very valuable tool: every team has a Strength Index value. Using the preseason numbers, we can see a team’s strength of schedule. We just average out the SI values of their opponents to get a “Preseason OSI.” The higher the number, the tougher your schedule.

But how do we know how many wins you need?

We started by looking at the previous year’s playoff standings. We looked at the top 16, and found the lowest OSI in the bunch. Then we checked to see if there was anyone who didn’t make the playoffs with a higher number. If not, we could say no one higher than the lowest OSI team in the playoffs missed.

For example, in South Group 5 this year, the lowest OSI team to make the playoffs was Morristown at 39.24 OSI. No one outside the top 16 was higher, so we say that’s the “target” to make the playoffs next season. And we can tweak that number based on an average over the last few years, too.

Now we look at a team’s opponents in preseason. For simplicity, if a team has eight games and all eight teams have an 60 SI value, their preseason OSI would be 60. If they won all their games, their OSI would be 60, and if they lost them all, it would be 30 (half value for each game you lose). (Of course, SI values change all year, but typically some go down, some go up, and it somewhat balances out.)

So we assume the lowest that team could get was a 30, the highest was an 60. That team plays eight games. On average each game would be worth 3.75 OSI points. Zero wins would be 30, one would be 33.75, two would be 37.5, and three would be 41.25 OSI. So, we’d say that team needs to win three games to make the playoffs, and for one full “step” over, four.

OK, now you’ve got the basis. We did this last year, and we were right on 55 of 58 public school teams. That is, the schools that got in the playoffs all won the minimum or more games than they needed to, and the teams that didn’t meet that threshold mostly failed to make the playoffs. (In all, five were wrong, but on a technicality, when a team with enough wins was declared ineligible and a team with not enough wins replaced them.)

This year? We got 55 of 57 right again.

Some examples?

• We thought Union – with a very difficult schedule – needed at least two wins to get in the playoffs. They made it – as a seven-seed in North 1, Group 5 – with a record of 2-6.
• Similarly, Elizabeth needed three wins to get in. They got just that, and are the eight-seed in North 2, Group 5.
• Johnson looked like it might not have made the playoffs if it didn’t beat South River Saturday afternoon. We predicted they would need five wins. They beat the Rams and finished with six wins.

The two we got wrong were Middlesex and Roselle, both of which were close.

We predicted the Blue Jays would need four wins to make the playoffs. They did, but finished 17th in South 1. We said the Rams would need three, but they got four and also missed. They, in part, were hurt by three extreme SI value drops: New Providence by 12, Belvidere by 20, and Bound Brook by 28.

But to us, the key one to look at is Spotswood. The Chargers went 6-3 and missed the playoffs. And we say it was their weak schedule.

Their target to make the playoffs was a 35.21 OSI. But their high-end was 41.87, and their low end was 23.55. That means they would have had to win eight games to make the playoffs. They won six and missed, and weren’t all that close.

This is where the schedule-makers have to help the teams in the league. And if it means taking the weak teams and putting them in an “Ivy” division that gets a “relief” schedule (i.e., Highland Park not having to play Brearley or Manville, and instead playing Dunellen, Metuchen, and Belvidere, and dare we say JP Stevens) and is ineligible for the playoffs, so be it. It would be better for those teams not to get hammered and maybe pick up a win or two, and it would help the teams who are getting hurt by having the Owls and Destroyers and the like on their schedules.

This isn’t about us getting 55 of 57 public schools right. (Although we did!) It’s about using the numbers used by the state as a tool for leagues and conferences to provide the best schedules for their member schools, providing them the best opportunity to have success.

I bet Spotswood would take 4-5 and a playoff berth over 6-3 and the season is over.

I should know. I’m an alum.