South Group 5 Playoff Analysis: North Brunswick controls its own fate, but everything else is up in the air

With Cutoff Weekend just a few days away, Central Jersey Sports Radio is taking a look at every team in the Big Central to see where we think they’ll end up in the playoffs.

We’re not looking at tiebreakers just yet, and even adding the few residuals to be had can make for infinitely more possibilities, so we’re not doing those either (they have very little impact right now). But we are looking at where we think teams will fall in the top 16. Tune in to our Playoff Projection show Saturday at 6 pm on Central Jersey Sports Radio for all our unofficial pairings.

Below is our analysis, with each team’s current ranking in the UPR standings noted.

(Click here for official standings on Gridiron New Jersey)

#1 North Brunswick: The Raiders control their own destiny here in, in a way. We believe they are guaranteed at least a top two finish, if they win at Cranford Friday night, which will be no easy task. Even if “everyone else” wins – that being all the teams a reasonable distance behind them: Lenape, Hillsboroough, Toms River North, Cherokee, and Kingsway – the worst North Brunswick seemingly could do is second overall, which still would give them the top seed in Central Jersey Group 5, as Lenape would be first overall and get the top seed in its natural section, South Jersey Group 5. Lenape has its second multiplier in as many weeks – St. Augustine – after a crushing late defeat to St. Joe’s-Hammonton last week. Should North Brunswick win, and everyone else but Lenape win, North Brunswick should finish first.

Where it gets dicey is if North Brunswick loses, which is not out of the realm of possibility. Then again, neither is a top two finish and a top seed.

• If North Brunswick and “everyone else” loses – even Lenape with the multiplier – we project North Brunswick to finish second overall, and take the top seed in CJ5.
• If North Brunswick loses and Lenape wins, as long as Cherokee, Kingsway, Toms River North and Hillsborough lose, they can still finish second overall. (TRN losing may be the least likely of the bunch, for what it’s worth.)
• If North Brunswick loses and Hillsorough wins, they would need Cherokee, Kingsway and Toms River North all to lose in order to stay in the top four, which would guarantee home field advantage through at least the sectional semifinals.

#3 Hillsborough: We think the Raiders have a chance at a top two seed – meaning they’d get the top seed in Central Jersey Group 5 – if they beat Westfield Saturday afternoon at 2 pm at Kehler Stadium, one of the later games on the schedule this weekend, and clearly one we’ll be watching closely no matter what happens Friday night. With a Hillsborough win and losses by North Brunswick, Toms River North, Kingsway and Cherokee – regardless of what Lenape does – we think Hillsborough would get the second overall seed, with Lenape first and North Brunswick third.

With a Hillsborough loss, the Raiders could finish anywhere down to No. 6, but that would at least give them a top eight finish, and a guarantee of at least a first-round playoff game.

#12 Edison: The Eagles are in the playoffs regardless of what happens this Friday night just up the road at St. Thomas Aquinas. But they have a pretty wide range of where they could end up, win or lose. Should the Eagles beat the Trojans – who are on the longest active Big Central winning streak at the moment, 15 games – they could finish as high as seventh, if at least Hillsborough, Kingsway and Marlboro lose, and even if Washington Township, Atlantic City and Rancocas Valley win. With a loss, if everything breaks the wrong way – although it probably won’t; this is just the extreme case – they could end up as low as 13th, a range of seven places.

#15 South Brunswick, #16 Hunterdon Central, #17 Old Bridge: We’re looking at these teams together because they are inextricably connected, and there could even be a tie-breaker in the equation. If all three teams win this weekend (South Brunswick home against Somerville, Old Bridge at Bridgewater-Raritan, Hunterdon Central in Perth Amboy) we think all three get in provided Southern (4-3) loses to Lacey (2-5); if not, the Red Devils would appear to be the odd man out. So, we don’t think they control their own fate, as we do when it comes to the Vikings and Knights.

Here are the scenarios if two out of the three teams win:

• If only Old Bridge and Hunterdon Central win, the most likely scenario is the Knights finish 15h and the Red Devils 16th.
• If only South Brunswick and Hunterdon Central win, we think South Brunswick is the 15th team and Hunterdon Central would need help, such as Marlboro (4-3) losing to Colts Neck (6-1), which is fairly likely.
• If only Old Bridge and South Brunswick win, it looks like the Vikings finish 15th and the Knights 16th. But hold the phone, the rules state a team can’t finish below a team it beat in the regular season. Old Bridge won at South Brunswick 27-22 on September 9th. So they’d flip flop, with Old Bridge getting the 15 seed.

What if only one of the three teams win this weekend? Plugging in wins for Old Bridge (and losses for Hunterdon Central and South Brunswick) or Hunterdon Central (and losses for Old Bridge and South Brunswick, we get a range of 13 to 15th place. That means if everyone else in the immediate vicinity of those teams won, we think the lowest they could finish is 15th, and if everyone else nearby lost, we think 13 is the best they can do.

But the most intriguing one is South Brunswick. Their bottom end appears to be 15 as well. But if everyone around the Vikings lose – we plugged in defeats for Atlantic City, Edison, Marlboro, Rancocas Valley, Southern and Williamstown – we think the Vikings could finish as high as eighth place overall and earn a first-round home game.

We’ll have live play-by-play of South Brunswick’s game against Somerville Friday night at 6:30 pm, with pregame at 6:15. Mike Pavlichko and Justin Sontupe have the call, with live updates from Chris Tsakonas after the 7 pm kickoff of Edison at St. Thomas Aquinas. Click here to listen.