Group 1 playoff analysis: Can Manville and Brearley tread water with weak schedules in final two weeks

(Source; @MHSGRIDIRON22 on Twitter)

With Cutoff Weekend just two weeks away, here’s a look at who’s in, who’s near the top, and who’s on the bubble in both the Group 1 supersections from the Big Central Conference.

NORTH 1 (Click here for official standings)

The only team in contention here in the Big Central is Brearley, which ranks first in power point average, but 8th in the OSI. What does that mean? Essentially, it means that the Bears’ opponents, while they may have a good amount of wins, aren’t considered as strong as the opponents of other teams in the supersection.

The upshot is that Brearley – one of four undefeated teams in the section – is tied for fourth overall with Cedar Grove and Weequahic, all with UPRs of 5.2. Wood-Ridge (6-0, 1.4 UPR) leads the section, followed by Park Ridge (5-1, 3 UPR) and Mountain Lakes (6-0, 3.2 UPR). Looking at tiebreakers, there was no head-to-head competition among the three, and no common opponents that all three have played, so the next item on the list is OSI, where Brearley would end up sixth.

Even with wins over Middlesex and Dunellen, it’s possible the Bears could drop further. Could they fall out of the top eight and begin the playoffs on the road? A lot would have to go wrong, but it’s possible.

SOUTH 1 (Click here for official standings)

Woodstown and Woodbury remain the top two seeds, followed by Maple Shade, Salem and then Manville in fifth. And the Mustangs – even if they finish 8-1 with wins the last two weeks against Highland Park and Bound Brook – will almost assuredly drop due to those schools’ weak Strength Index values.

South Hunterdon in 12th should be in the playoffs, but be in the bottom eight and start on the road.

Middlesex is the good question, down at the bottom at No. 18. But they have two solid OSI teams in Brearley and New Providence the last two weeks. Maybe easier said than done, but let’s put it this way: if they beat both, the Blue Jays are in. No doubt about it. A split? They could still get in, but might need some help.

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