Group 5 and 4 playoff analysis: Four area teams in line for top seeds

With just two weeks to go before Cutoff Weekend, Hillsborough has moved up into one of the top two positions in the South Group 4 supersection, making it four area teams that have a good shot at earning a top-seed their respective sectional brackets. Here’s a look at Groups 5 and 4 after Week 6 of play.

NORTH 5 (Click here for official standings)

The No. 1 team in the Big Central rankings for most of the year, Phillipsburg is the overall top-seed here, and would get the top seed in its “natural” playoff section, North 2 Group 5, if the playoffs started today. At 6-0, assuming they don’t get upset the next two weeks by Union or East Brunswick, the Stateliners should be able to maintain that position.

While the fluidity of the formula makes it difficult to say anyone has “clinched” a playoff berth, we believe Westfield and Watchung Hills are in the playoffs, sitting at 5 and 6 in the standings.

Piscataway, at 4-2, is a “good bet” to make the playoffs, at 4-2, as is Bridgewater-Raritan, believe it or not, right behind them at 2-5. They might be the best two-win team in the section.

Union and Montclair would be on the bubble at the moment, but at least inside at 14 and 15. And based on the teams behind them, even if they don’t win another game, could still get in if things break right for them.

SOUTH 5 (Click here for official standings)

The top two spots here are held by two Raiders: North Brunswick and Hillsborough, the two teams that squared off for last year’s Central Jersey Group 5 title, which Hillsborough won. This year, they would be top seeds in separate sections if the playoffs started today. But North would be the Central 5 top seed, while ‘Boro would be South 5’s top seed.

We promised we wouldn’t be heavy on details this week, but this is an interesting one, so here goes.

The one to watch here is Lenape, with that double multiplier looming. They are in 5th in the standings, 4-2 on the hear, and host St. Joe’s of Hammonton this week before traveling to St. Augustine next week. Those are 42/28 point multipliers, meaning they get 48 for beating one of those teams, 28 for losing. Unlike last year, both games can count toward power points.

If Lenape loses both games, even if North Brunswick, Hillsborough, Toms River North (3rd) and Cherokee (4th) all win their remaining two games, it doesn’t appear Lenape can jump up to a top two seed.

However, if all those teams win out and Lenape splits – beating either Joe’s or Augustine – believe it or not, it appears Lenape would move to fourth and Cherokee would bump Hillsborough to third. Why? In part because Cherokee lost to Lenape this past weekend, so Cherokee would get an extra three residual points.

Again, all this is without any of the Strength Index changes that affect OSI, so any of this could change.

Edison is pretty safely in the playoffs, we think, and South Brunswick should be as well, barring something wacky happening.

Old Bridge, at 4-3 and in 16th place, we think controls its own destiny: two wins and they’re in. They still could make it otherwise, but why take that chance?

Hunterdon Central – now at 2-5 – is 19th, but not a terrible longshot, just 1 UPR point behind Old Bridge, three places hire. Would wins over Franklin and at Perth Amboy be enough? They might still need some help.

NORTH 4 (Click here for official standings)

Here’s the fourth team from the Big Central in line for a top seed: North Hunterdon. The 6-1 Lions – whose only loss is to Phillipsburg (evidence of how “good” losses according to the OSI formula don’t hurt teams too much) – lead the entire pack, and are first in both power point average and OSI.

With a pair of three-win teams coming up, a sweep of the final two games won’t cost them either, so North controls its own destiny.

Ridge is in 7th at 4-2 on the year, and is a solid bet to be in, with a good chance of making the top eight and having a first-round home game, at least.

Colonia (6-1, 9th) and Sayreville (4-2, 10th) should be in, but whether they end up on the road or at home in the first round is very much still in play.

Montgomery and Rahway are 13th and 14th, but going the wrong way. The Cougars have lost two straight, the Indians three in a row. If they can get back on the horse, they should be in, but a couple more losses for either could put the postseason on jeopardy.

Linden is in 16th, and Woodbridge is in 17th, with the Tigers on the right side of the bubble and the Barrons on the outside looking in. The only real team to worry about behind them is Barringer out of Newark at 4-2 and in 18th. The rest of the field is pretty weak, so it’s probably Monty, Rahway, Middletown North, Linden, Woodbridge and Barringer (and maybe 3-3 Orange, in 21st) making up a group of six or seven playoff teams battling for the last four or five playoff spots.