We are three weeks out from the NJSIAA Cutoff Date for the playoffs in high school basketball, and we’re at a critical part of the season in terms of the playoff standings.

Not only is it crunch time – for those close to earning top seeds, or those sitting outside the bubble and trying to get in – but the numbers could see some big shifts right around now.

Last year, the new power point formula counted all games, but this year, only the top 16 count. Some teams have played more, some less, and some have just gotten to 16. What that means is that for a team with just a couple of losses, those (or wins against weak opponents) will drop off, and teams could see a boost from that alone.

For example: If a team’s power point average is 20 and they’ve played 16 games, that’s a total of 320 divided by 16. But if that team’s lowest score is 9 power points, and they beat an opponent worth 20, they’d now have 340 points in 17 games. Dropping the 9 would give them 331 points in 16 games, for an average of 20.688. Thus, a team could gain, even though they beat a team worth right around their average.

So, let’s get to the breakdown, section by section for each group with a team from the GMC or Somerset County. Analysis is based on official state power point standings posted on NJ.com as of 10 am on January 25, 2026, which includes games through Saturday. Click on the header for each section to go to the NJ.com page for that section.

Central Jersey Group 4

What a year Hillsborough is having. We got our first look at them Thursday night, in a 70-52 home win over East Brunswick, and the Lady Raiders looked crisp with their passing, pesky in their defense, and not like a team that graduated nearly 4,000 career points from a season ago. With a 14-2 record, they sit atop Central Jersey Group 4, and have a lead of nearly five full power points over second-place Princeton. And with only the best 16 games counting toward power points, additional wins would drop the nine points from a Franklin loss and a Phillipsburg win off the schedule, and boost them even more. The Raiders – who’ve won sectional titles each of the last two seasons – in North 2, Group 4 in 2024 and this section last year – are in really good shape here to hold on to the top seed if they keep playing the way they’re playing, and they should.

After Princeton (12-3, 20.914) and Hunterdon Central (8-7, 20.654), there’s Franklin (10-6, 20/275) in fourth and East Brunswick (13-4, 20.149) in fifth. These four are bunched in tightly – all within 0.8 of each other – and with three weeks to go, any one of them could finish in the top two, which would guarantee home court advantage at least through the sectional semifinals.

In sixth – but a few points behind – is Sayreville (11-3, 17.95), and they could still have a shot at a top four seed, by our account. The Bombers have won four straight. Woodbridge and Brearley are key games down the stretch, and other wins against moderately good teams could drop some lower values off their chart.

In the middle of the pack are Montgomery (7-6, 16.193, 8th) and New Brunswick (9-6, 15.128, 9th). They both could end up on either end of that marker, where the top eight get to host at least an opening round game. It’s a tight field behind and ahead of them as well, so a lot can happen over the next three weeks.

Further down, we call Monroe a bubble team at 5-8, in 14th, with a 13.465 power point average. On the one hand, they’re well under a point away from 10th place Freehold Twp. (7-8, 14.262), but they’re also around a point-and-a-half behind 17th place Trenton (5-9). It’s likely they’ll get in, but a signature win over someone like a Spotswood or undefeated Colonia would be a big boost.

Old Bridge also is a bubble team at 16, with a 6-9 record and 13.178 points. They’re mere fractions behind Monroe as well, but have lost six of their last eight. They’ll need some wins down the stretch – and have a Jan. 31 date at Monroe – while a road game at Bound Brook on Feb. 3 would be a big boost as well. The Knights have some opportunities.

And even Edison (4-12, 10.275, 18th) has a shot, less than two power points behind Old Bridge. Remember, teams with only a handful of wins can make major gains with an additional wins (think: a fifth win increases the win total by 25 percent, where as a win by a ten-win team increases the win total by just 10 percent).

Central Jersey Group 2

Manasquan is the leader of the pack here, at 14-2, with 30.476 power points, a little more than three ahead of second-place Rumson-Fair Haven (14-3, 27.105).

The highest-ranked team here from the CJSR coverage area is Piscataway Magnet (14-1, 19.443, 5th). They’re about six points behind fourth place Johnson, but just .508 behind fourth-place Bordentown (10-1). We think they could reach that, but most likely top out there. South River is right behind at 14-3 (18.856), and they might have a shot at a top four seed against the other two if some losses drop off the slate for the Rams.

In the middle of the pack is Spotswood (10-7, 16.232), the lowest-rated double-digit win team. But here’s a perfect example why the new “best 16” rule was brought back: to reward teams that played a tough schedule, but not hurting them for “bad” wins outside their control (i.e., conference, division schedules). Now at 17 games, a 5-point win over Cheltenham (PA) before Christmas dropped off the board after they beat South Brunswick, a 9.472-point win. That means they gained 4.472 points with that win over the Vikings. Another good win would drop a victory in the 7-point range off the map, and they have the chance to do that. Of the last five scheduled games they have, three (West Windsor-Plainsboro South, East Brunswick and Somerville) all are potential big gainers, as they all have double-digit wins. Even losses might bounce lesser games off the schedule. Good chance Spotswood could move up even if they take one of those three. Monroe and Bridgewater-Raritan are no slouches either, by the way.

It’s all the way down to 14th for Metuchen (6-8, 12.924) and East Brunswick Magnet (6-6, 11.525, 16th). We’d loosely call the Bulldogs a bubble team. There are only 20 teams here, and most likely 18 who are realistic shots to make it, so we think the Bulldogs – while they’re far from wrapping up anything yet – are going to make it. The Tigers have a good shot as well.

Central Jersey Group 1

The “best 16” rule effect will come into play soon here at the top, where Nos. 1 and 2 both are 15-1, and about to play their 17th games this week. New Providence is first (29.459), followed by Bound Brook (26.903). That’s about a two-and-a-half point gap, and not impossible to make up. The Crusaders have weaker low-end scores than the Pioneers, so that could be a factor here. The biggest opportunity here will be a Valentine’s Day clash when Bernards (13-1) visits The Brook. Otherwise, the upcoming schedule isn’t spectacular.

Fairly in the top eight is South Amboy at 11-3, sixth-place with 17.398 power points. The Governors look like they’re in a good place at the moment, but likely will need to keep winning significantly to stay there. After Thrive Charter in seventh (6-7, 17.019), the border for the top eight has Middlesex (9-7, 16.497) in 8th and Manville (8-5, 15.68) in ninth. Call them bubble first-round home teams, but right now it looks like Shore (8-7, 14.117) in tenth is the only one close enough to the top eight. Florence (6-6) is about two-and-a-half points back, a significant distance – for the time being.

College Achieve Central (5-5, 11.443) sits in 12th, and looks like they should be in, but probably will finish in the bottom eight,

A couple of other local, struggling teams are on the right side of the bubble here, but with a number of other teams in the same boat, a lot could change; expect much volatility here. That includes Perth Amboy Magnet (3.9, 9.703, 14th) and Highland Park (4-11, 8.735, 16th). And by that logic, it means Dunellen (2-13, 7.537, 18th) and Woodbridge Magnet (3-11, 7.037, 19th) might also have a shot.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4

Westfield (13-3, 27.416) tops this section, with the closest CJSR-area team being Piscataway (9-6, 17.205) sitting in fifth. They probably could max out at No. 3, a spot currently occupied by Elizabeth (10.5, 18.974), with Columbia (12-4, 18.776) right behind. It would be a big hill – more than seven points by average – to reach the Blue Devils, or even second-place Bayonne (14-3, 24.911).

But the Chiefs may have to watch some teams behind them, as it’s tight down to No. 9, with Bridgewater-Raritan (8-7, 15.682) down in seventh, Watchung Hills (6-8, 15.485) in eighth, and Perth Amboy (9-5, 15.208) in ninth, packed in like sardines. Even Plainfield (6-9, 14.899) in 10th place may have a shot at the top eight with that group.

It’s another one-point gap back to Woodbridge (10-4, 13.808) at 11 and Ridge (7-7, 13.58) at 12, and we think they are most likely going to finish in the bottom eight here, though if things play right, either could have a shot.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3

While there’s a GMC team No. 1 and a Somerset County squad No. 2, it’s a pretty decent gap between the two. Undefeated Colonia (14-0) leads Somerville (12-4) by 4.741 power points, 27.054 to 22.313. The catch here is Somerville has played 16 games, and those low scores will start shedding, while Colonia has only 14 so far. They’ll catch up, but keep in mind if they drop a game, that’s a significant hit, whereas the Pioneers already have four losses, and another one – depending on who it comes against – would not hurt them as much as it would hit the Patriots. Colonia’s lowest power point values are over 18, while Somerville’s is a 9.343.

Further down, Carteret (11-5, 16.898) is in the middle of the pack at seven, and the Ramblers probably finish in the top eight if they keep winning, though nothing is set in stone yet. North Plainfield is 4-9, with 12.256 points and in 11th, and we thing they’re a likely bottom eight team on the current trend.

On the inside of the bubble, but still squarely on it, is South Plainfield. The Tigers are in 15th at 5-11 with a 10.134 power point average. Three teams behind them (Warren hills (2-13, 9.892), Payne Tech (2-12, 9.354) and Rahway (3-10, 9.34) are within striking distance from 16 to 18. They’re the best chance to catch the Tigers, but two of them would have to pass South Plainfield to keep them out. I’d give South better than a 50-50 shot of getting in.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 1

The only team from the CJSR coverage are here is Bernards. The Mountaineers are 13-1, their lone loss coming last weekend to Roselle Park and the state’s top scorer in Sidney Smith. But while they’re in second place with 27.724 points, they are a long way away from No. 1 Caldwell, which is just a half-game better at 13-1, but almost seven full points ahead at 34.236 points. Bernards also might need to watch out for Voorhees behind them at 10-3 (25.318 points), but probably has a good enough lead over Snyder (7-4, 22.112) at this point that they only need to worry about the Vikings, as long as they keep winning.

Non-Public North A

Pingry (7-6) is the only CJSR-area team here, sitting right in the middle of a 15-team field, at No. 7 with 20.015 power points. We don’t think they fall out of the top eight, with Montclair-Kimberley (9-4) behind them, but at 15.19 points. Yet, they could move up and challenge 6th-place Mount St. Dominic (9-7, 20.442) and 5th-place Dwight-Englewood (10-1, 21.136).

First-place here is DePaul (10-1, 28.69), followed by Immaculate Heart (12-3, 27.917).

Non-Public North B

Just like we talked about Hillsborough, Gill St. Bernard’s also lost a ton of talent, but here they are, right at the top of the pile, and by a huge margin over Hudson Catholic. The Knights are 13-3 with a 28.335 power point average, while Hudson Catholic is 9-7, at 19.665. That’s almost a nine-point difference, and outside of a bunch of losses by Gill (unlikely) or an amazing run by the Hawks (less unlikely), they should have it just about locked up, and a win Thursday at Rutgers Prep – which you can hear on Central Jersey Sports Radio – just might do it.

Mother Seton out of the GMC checks in at No. 4 with an 8-4 record, at 17.683 points. Now, the Setters could move in either direction, just under two points behind Hudson Catholic, and less than three points ahead of Mount St. Dominic (9-6) 15.163) in eighth, with three others in between (Eastern Christian, Mary Help of Christians, and Villa Walsh).

Non-Public South A

The Shore Conference has the top two spots, and it’ll be fun to watch these two powerhouses duke it out. Right now, it’s Red Bank Catholic (36.689) at No. 1, with St. John Vianney No. 2 (36.299) with both teams 14-2. They split with each other earlier this month, so it’s going to come down to who they play here down the stretch.

St. Thomas Aquinas (16-3) is the highest-ranked CJSR-area team here, checking in at four with a 28.259 average. They might have to watch teams behind the (Camden Catholic fifth at 13-3, 27.347 and Trinity Hall at 13-3 in fifth, 26.109) but they might have some opportunities to move up, including a February third game at Gill St. Bernard’s we’ve just added to our broadcast schedule.

Down at 13 and 14 are Immaculata (6-9, 14.674) and Mount St. Mary (4-9, 13.788). Everyone makes it here if they want to in a 15-team field, so it’s just going to be a matter of who finishes where, and who they’ll face in the first round. These two are very likely to begin play on the road, wherever they end up.

Non-Public South B

Gloucester Catholic (11-3, 29.263) is the No. 1 team in the section, but Rutgers Prep (14-2) is right there behind them at 28.411 points, just 0.852 behind. Wildwood Catholic is just under three points behind the Argonauts, who are playing very well, and have a big one this Thursday at Prep, which you can hear live on Central Jersey Sports Radio at 5:30 pm. And at 16 games now, some of those lesser wins (worth less than some of Prep’s losses) like over Phillipsburg and – believe it or not – St. Rose will come off, too.

Calvary Christian is in the middle of the field at 5-6 overall, 11.2 power points, in seventh place. They could end up in the top eight or the bottom half; it’s just too close to call right now with a near-.500 record and some similar teams close behind them.

Wardlaw-Hartridge (3-9, 8.08) sits in 13th place, behind Timothy Christian, which is only technically in the standings, but has only played two games, and won’t meet the minimum to qualify.