Now that Gridiron New Jersey has released the official Strength Index numbers for all teams in the Garden State – and we’ve been able to figure out out-of-state opponents based on the latest standings and some simple math – there have been some adjustments in the state and Big Central power rankings.
Previous rankings by CJSR based on unofficial, projected SI numbers saw some changes, since we didn’t have information on out-of-state teams prior to their release after Week Two of play, per NJSIAA rules.
The power rankings are simply based on the state’s Strength Index formula, which helps determine a team’s OSI, which is 60% of the UPR playoff formula. SI values and will change each week as games are played. See methodology at the bottom of this page.
With the new OOS numbers released, St. Thomas Aquinas having fallen to Catholic Memorial (PA) in Week One, and Phillipsburg’s 48-point win over Hunterdon Central, the Stateliners take the new top spot this week in the Big Central power rankings. The Trojans move to No. 2, while Bernards moved up to three and Somerville fell to fourth after a Friday night home loss to Montgomery. Ridge rounds out the top five, moving up three places.
New Providence, Woodbridge, St. Joseph-Metuchen, Elizabeth and Piscataway round out the Top Ten in the league. And 18 of the league’s teams are in the Top 100.
Meanwhile, three Big Central teams continue to be ranked in the Top 25 statewide, with St. Thomas Aquinas the highest of them for a second straight week, holding at No. 6. (Keep in mind, their SI could not be updated this week since they played an out-of-state opponent. Phillipsburg climbs from 17 to 12, while Somerville dropped from 11 to 13.
Around the state, the out-of-state SI release and Week Two results brought some big changes.
The new No. 1 is Glassboro, which now has the state’s longest active win streak at 16 games after Rumson-Fair Haven had its 15-game streak snapped with a loss Friday night to Holmdel, dropping them all the way down to seven. (Both teams happen to be the Bulldogs, by the way.)
Bergen Catholic moves from five to two, likely based in part on the OOS SI numbers coming our, followed by Washington Twp (up five spots to third), DePaul (holding in fourth) and Don Bosco Prep (up from ninth to No. 5).
Only two Big Central teams remain in the state Top 25, as Phillipsburg rose from 12th to 10th place, while St. Thomas Aquinas dropped from No. 6 to 16. Somerville dropped out with its loss to Montgomery.
Note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly has last week’s rankings included.
Strength Index Methodology: Team A and Team B are compared to find the difference between their rankings, which provides the Expected Result. The margin of the final score is figured in positive or negative terms compared to the Expected Result. The difference is divided by five, and the teams increase or decrease by the resulting number.
Example #1: Team A has an SI value of 80, while Team B has an SI value of 60. The Expected Result is +20 for Team A. When the game is played, Team A wins by 30. That is 10 points higher than the expected result. Than number is divided by 5, meaning Team A increases by 2 (Team A now has an SI of 82) while Team B decreases by 2 (Team B now has an SI of 58).
Example #2: In the same scenario, Team A defeats Team B by 20. That is the same as the Expected Result, no there is no change. Team A remains with an SI value of 80, while Team B retains its 60 SI value.
Example #2: Team A defeats Team B by 10. That is 10 points fewer than the expected result. Divide by 5 to get 2, but in this case, Team A drops by 2 points to 78 (because Team A “underperformed”) while Team B increases by 2 points to 62.
Out-of-State Opponent SI: Strength Index ratings for non-New Jersey teams are calculated by finding their MaxPreps national ranking, then averaging the SI ratings of the next New Jersey team above and below them in the MaxPreps rankings.
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