Ridge, Colonia, Middlesex in drivers’ seat for top seeds in state tournament heading into Wednesday’s extended NJSIAA cutoff

The NJSIAA last week announced it would extend the cutoff for the state tournament, moving it from Saturday to Wednesday to accomodate some teams that had not played the minimum 16 games yet.

Teams can still qualify, but when points are averaged out, those that haven’t played 16 games would still have been divided by 16, artificially lowering their average.

Some coaches, off the record, have complained about the extension, with their issue two-fold: First, since the vast majority of teams did play 16 or more games, they believe it was the responsibility of teams to schedule more games early, just in case of rainouts. More importantly, some scheduled lesser opponents this week, knowing it was after the cutoff, and now those games could come back to bite them.

Then again, it could also help, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens to Ridge when the Red Devils host Immaculata tonight in the Somerset County Tournament Final, although even that game is in question. A decision on whether to postpone until Friday will be made by 3 pm, per tournament. A win could boost Ridge, but it remains to be seen if they could slip to second place.

Colonia and Middlesex are much more comfortable in their positions, at No. 1 in North 2, Group 3 and Central Group 1, respectively.

With rain expected most of the rest of the day – the SCT finals not withstanding – few teams are likely to get games in today, especially those without turf. Here’s a look at the current standings as of 11:45 am, per NJ.com. Seeding will be tomorrow, and results will be official as of Friday at noon.

Central Jersey Group 4: Hunterdon Central (15-6, 27.562) will be the top team here, followed by two GMC Red Division teams in Old Bridge (15-9, 23.276) and Edison (15-9, 22.624). We thing there won’t be much movement today, and they should stay as is. After Hightstown (15-4-1) to round out the top four, in fifth there’s New Brunswick (14-2, 20.596) – a finalist in Friday’s Ray Cipperly GMC Invitational Tournament – as well as East Brunswick (11-22, 19.514) and Monroe (9-12, 19.326). We think anything closer than a half point could change today based on other results, so don’t lock the Bears and Falcons in just yet. Freehold Township (10-10, 18.543) rounds out the top eight, meaning ninth-place Hillsborough (9-10, 18.38) likely starts on the road, unless there’s a shift in averages today. Manalapn is tenth, then three more area teams: Franklin (10-8, 16.355) at 11, followed by Montgomery (7-14, 15.287) and North Brunswick (5-14, 14.96). Sayreville is at 15 (9-14, 14.742) and should be in.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4: Ridge (16-4, 26.675) should have a substantial enough lead over Woodbridge (16-6, 25.476) that a couple of games today won’t swing it, but a loss to Immaculata could put that top spot in jeopardy for the Red Devils. This being the first year of the new formula that includes Opponent Opponent Winning Percentage (power points are multiplied by the winning percentage of your opoonents’ opponents, plus .500) we just don’t have enough experience to tell by eyeball without running a plethora of scenarios. A basic calculation suggests (just adding in the same points Ridge got for a loss to Immaculata earlier this season) Ridge would get it by around 0.4 power points over Woodbridge, but that doesn’t take into account wins or losses by any other schools the two might have played, or their opponents. Of course, a win would solidify it. That said, Westfield and Elizabeth likely round out the top four, in that order, than after Phillipsburg, there’s Watchung Hills (11-11, 19.001) in sixth, but just .001 points ahead of Columbia (11-11-1, 19). That very well could change, down to one-thousandth of a point. Scotch Plainf-Fanwood (16,827) rounds out the top eight, with Bridgewater-Raritan (6-17, 16.827) in ninth. After Bayonne, Ferris and Barringer, there’s Piscataway (6-12, 13.531) and JP Stevens (7-16, 13.516) at 13 and 14, respectively, and following Plainfield, Perth Amboy sits precariously on the good side of the bubble at 6-12, 12.987 points, but just 0.182 ahead of Newark East Side (11-8, 12.805), so we can’t confidently call the Panthers in just yet.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3: It’s a good lead for Colonia (18-4, 14.548), which should have the top seed locked up over South Plainfield (14-9, 22.121), followed by Millburn (21.965) and North Hunterdon (11-10, 21.444). We’re not sure yet if the Tigers are locked in, or could fall to third. North Plainfield (14-7, 20.987) checks in at five, then after Cranford (13-9, 19.669), there’s Somerville (11-10, 19.08). There’s a chance, we think, they could fall from seven to eight, but probably not out of the top eight behind current ninth-place team Payne Tech (13-6, 18.46). Carteret (9-11) is all the way down at 11, followed by JFK (9-12, 17.418).

Central Jersey Group 2: Undefeated Governor Livingston – ranked No. 1 in New Jersey – is in first by a mile with 34.974 power points and a record of 22-0. The highest CJSR-area team is East Brunswick Magnet (20-4, 21.816), which will face New Brunswick Friday at noon in the GMC Invitational final, followed by South River (15-6, 21.717) in ninth. It’s too close to tell if they will stay that way or flip-flop tomorrow. Spotswood (14-10, 20.676) – which lost to St. Joseph-Metuchen in the GMC Championship Tournament semis last Saturday – is back down at 12, but could shuffle up a bit.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2: The section is led by West Essex (14-7, 24.379), which has a narrow lead over Madison (17-3, 24.166) for No. 1. The only local team here is Bernards (11-10, 18.671), which sits in tenth, and looks pretty solid there.

Central Jersey Group 1: Looking more like the Blue Jays of a few seasons ago, Middlesex (16-5, 26.541) sits in the top spot, and will hold on to it when the seeding comes out, almost five power points ahead of second-place Point Pleasant Beach (16-7, 21.838). They should hold there, as should Metuchen (16-9, 20.427) in third, and Shore (12-9, 17.402) or Florence (12-9, 17.385) rounding out the top four. That’s a 0.17 difference between the two, and either could get that last position in the top four. South Amboy (6-13, 14.7) is next from the area at seven, with Dunellen (16-9, 15.637) holding a precarious lead over South Hunterdon (12-9, 14.089) for the eighth spot. Manville (11-9, 14.04) is in tenth, but could go up or drop a spot, then after New Egypt (7-13, 13.633), there’s Somerset Tech (8-8, 13.438) and Piscataway Magnet (10-11, 12.914). But the Raiders are just 0.21 points ahead of Keyport (6-7), so we wouldn’t say they’re locked in yet.

Non-Public South A: Christian Brothers should be the top seed at 18-4, 30.177 power points, but Red Bank Catholic (17-5, 29.645) is close behind. St. Augustine (15-6, 26.58) should be third, followed by St. Joseph-Metuchen (14-6, 25.204), looking pretty solid there. After Union Catholic (16-8, 24.278), Immaculata (13-7, 23.624) is there at six, but not too far back, and could move up, especially if they beat Ridge tonight. (A basic calculation without any other results would give them a 24.647 power point average.) Pingry is much further down the list, at 5-17, and 12.21 power points.

Non-Public North B: The top team here is Montclair-Kimberley (16-5, 22.308), but not by much over Morristown Beard (14-6, 22.206). Close behind is defending champion St. Thomas Aquinas (15-7, 21.782), a Group B finalist last year that lost to Gloucester Catholic. After St. Mary-Rutherford (16-8, 21.447) is Rutgers Prep at No. 5 (12-9, 19.55). Then there’s Pope John close behind at 10-11, with 19.213 power points, and Gill St. Bernard’s (11-11, 18.432) at seven. Timothy Christian is at No. 11 in a 12-team section, but at 0-14, it’s unknown if they’ll opt out.