A look at where GMC, Somerset girls’ basketball teams stand two weeks before NJSIAA cutoff

The NJSIAA state playoff cutoff is just two weeks away, and we’re taking a look at where the girl’s basketball teams from Middlesex and Somerset County stand as the regular season winds down – and county tournaments kick into high gear.

While only Gill St. Bernard’s and Hillsborough sit in first in any of the ten playoff sections containing teams from the Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area, others may have a crack, or at least could finish in the top two or top four.

Read on to see where your favorite team stands.

New NJSIAA Formula: Like in all sports, Group Points are no longer a factor in power points, as the NJSIAA has decided school size is little to no indication of strength. Rather, the traditional Quality Points (6 for a win, none for a loss) and Residuals (3 for every win by an opponent you beat, one for every win by an opponent you lost to) also get added to the opponent’s winning percentage plus .500, meaning a victory over a 10-10 would be worth 6 Quality Points, 30 Residuals, and a 1.000 strength component (.500 win percentage, plus .500). Out of state teams are worth a flat .500 in strength points. Only the first 16 games can be considered residuals, meaning if a team is 10-10, and four of those wins came after their 16th game, only those first six wins would factor into residuals.

Note: The analysis below may not include results of some late Sunday games. Standings are based on NJ.com scores reported as of 6:30 pm Sunday, February 2, with the exception of Non-Public North B, updated following a loss by Gill St. Bernard’s to Manasquan:

Central Jersey Group 1: New Providence (17-2, 20.058 power points) leads the pack here, with two area teams not far behind the No. 16 team in the state in the standings, although they may not be able to catch the Pioneers in terms of points. After Thrive Charter (16-4, 22.621), there’s Middlesex (16-4, 22.621) and Bound Brook (12-5, 22.36). Both should have a good shot at a top four seed, but probably can’t climb higher than second. Three more GMC teams occupy spots eight through ten: Highland Park (10-5, 15.149), Woodbridge Magnet (8-8, 14.843) and South Amboy (9-10, 14.729). And there’s not even a lot of distance to Keansburg and Point Pleasant Beach, then Manville (8-6, 13.56) in 13th. That’s a stretch of just 1.589 power points from eight to 13, which means a lot of shifting could take place with a lot of basketball to play over the next 13 days. Perth Amboy Magnet at 5-13 (10.363) is not far off the pace, but is on the outside of the bubble, looking in.

Central Jersey Group 2: The No. 13 team in the state – Manasquan – is in first here at 15-3, with 31.399 power points, and with a more than eight point lead over Point Pleasant Boro (16-2), they should hold that spot. The highest-ranked teams from the CJSR listening area is Metuchen (15-3, 19.055) in seventh, followed closely by Spotswood (15-6, 18.678). Both may have some work to do to hold on to a top eight seed, but it’s certainly far from being out of the question. Piscataway Magnet (11-5, 16.882) still might have a chance for a top eight seed, but probably can’t afford a slip-up. East Brunswick Magnet (4-12) is on the outside looking in at 16th (10.246) but a playoff berth isn’t out of the question.

Central Jersey Group 4: The leader here is ahead by a good number. That’s Hillsborough (15-3, 26.091), a defending sectional champion, though not here; they won North 2 Group 4 last year before being reclassified into Central for the next two seasons. The Raiders are ahead of Monroe (12-7, 21.685) and should be able to hold on over the next couple of weeks if they maintain their current level of play. Franklin (6-12, 18.426) is a poster girl for the new system giving weight to difficult schedules; despite being six games below .500, they’re in fifth place, sharing a division with Hillsborough, Rutgers Prep and Gill St. Bernard’s. The Warriors are followed by a slew of local teams: Edison (12-8, 17.993) in sixth, followed by East Brunswick (10-9, 17.623), South Brunswick (9-9, 16.901), and Old Bridge (9-9, 16.249) in ninth. All have a good shot at a top eight seed, but so do Marlboro (6-10, 16.096) and Freehold Twp. (10-6, 15.825). Behind them, it’s back to the GMC for New Brunswick (10-9, 15.281) sitting in 12th. Montgomery (6-12, 13.462) is on the right side of the bubble in 15th, while North Brunswick (6-12, 12.173) is in 18th, but just .783 points out of a playoff spot. That’s not an insurmountable number.

Non-Public North A: Two-time defending state Group A champ – and No. 1 ranked team in New Jersey – Morris Catholic sits atop the section here at 16-0, with 39.152 power points. No one is realistically catching them. The only area team here is Pingry (14-4, 26.841), which sits in fourth place out of 15 teams. Nearly four full power points ahead of DePaul (10-5, 22.936), we think the Big Blue are likely a top four seed.

Non-Public South A: St. Rose of Belmar (15-3, 35.286) -ranked No. 7 statewide – leads the section, followed by some really good teams in Paul VI, St. John Vianney and Red Bank Catholic. This is a bear of a section, which finds St. Thomas Aquinas (16-5, 26.411) in sixth. Further down are two teams from Somerset County: Immaculata (9-8, 19.46) is in 11th, and Mount St. Mary (9-10, 16.063) is in 13th out of 15 teams.

Non-Public North B: Despite a Sunday evening loss to Red Bank Catholic, Gill St. Bernard’s (15-3, 32.169) still holds a significant lead over Montclair-Immaculata (12-5, 27.656) that may be difficult to overcome at this late stage. Mother Seton (11-4, 21.44) out of the GMC sits in sixth, the only other CJSR-area team in this section.

Non-Public South B: Wildwood Catholic (16-3, 29.576) sits at No. 1, ahead of Rutgers Prep (14-3, 29.25), which is ranked No. 8 in the state. (Wildwood Catholic is unranked.) But that’s not a big gap between the two, just .326 points separating them. In fourth is Calvary Christian (16-1, 25.868) out of Old Bridge, which is having a fine year. Further down, Wardlaw-Hartridge (9-7, 16.803) is in seventh, with Timothy Christian (6-12, 11.91) in tenth.

We’ll do another update of both the boys’ and girls’ standings next weekend, a week before the NJSIAA cutoff.