How would the Born Power Index seed the GMC Tournament? A look at the top 16

We’re still a week away from the GMC tournament seeding meeting, and two divisions are yet to be settled, but we’re already thinking about how the seeds might look.

With the GMC Red Division wrapping up its last year of a two-season pilot program where teams only have to play once through their schedule instead of twice, St. Joseph-Metuchen will be the No. 1 seed; no one is doubting that. They’re the Red Division champions, and have beaten Colonia twice and St. Thomas Aquinas once.

After that, there very well could be co-champions in the White and Blue after big wins this week by the second place teams in those divisions. 

On Thursday, in a game heard on Central Jersey Sports Radio, Woodbridge won at South Plainfield to pull even in the loss column in the White. The Barrons could have the egde if they end up tied, since their lone loss came in their first meeting with the Tigers, while South Plainfield’s loss came to last place Edison in their own Anthony J. Cotoia holiday tournament.

Then, Friday night, Spotswood earned a split with Blue Division leader Timothy Christian, picking up an overtime home victory. If they remain tied atop the division, that could be a little more tricky to settle. Each team’s lone division loss is to the other. 

On top of that, each team won at home, and each game was decided by eight points. The Tigers won the opener, 78-70, while the Chargers won the rematch 84-76 in OT.

Each team has played one crossover “up” in the league. Timothy lost by one to North Plainfield (5-12) out of the White, while Spotswood lost by 17 to a much better Monroe (13-5) team out of the White. 

That leaves just the Gold Division, where Calvary Christian is unbeaten, but doesn’t play second place Perth Amboy Magnet again until after the county seeding meeting on February second. 

All that said, we though it would be interesting once again to take a look at how the Born Power Index would seed the GMC Tournament.

For those who don’t remember, the Born power Index was used for one year as part of the NJSIAA’s football seeding formula, then quickly scrapped.

But it’s been around for decades, and was even used to help Union county’s JV tournament in the 1960s.

The formula essentially grades teams on how they compete against opponents based on each teams rating. A team rated 80 is considered 20 points better than a team rated a 60. But if the lower rated team plays a closer game, their rating goes up, and the other team’s goes down. A win isn’t the only way a team can gain.

In any event, the Born Power Index still rates football and boys’ basketball teams in New Jersey. So how would the tournament be seeded??

Since the round of 16 is the first full round of the GMC Tournament, we’re looking at who would make the Top 16 and from what divisions. GMC seeding rules state the winners of the four divisions must be seeded in the top eight. That doesn’t include co-champions, however. The seeding committee breaks all ties in the meeting before the seeding takes place, so if Spotswood and Timothy Christian were Blue Division co-champions, the committee would break the tie first, rather than one or both of those teams being considered.

One other note: GMC rules also state teams must be seeded in order of divisional finish. In other words, if a Team B is in second with three divisional losses, but Team A has 2 losses to Team B, Team B can’t jump them on head-to-head. Team A comes out first by virtue of winning the division.

Ratings below are through games on January 25th:

1. St. Joseph Metuchen, 77 (Red)
2. Colonia, 75.7 (Red)
3. St. Thomas Aquinas, 71.9 (Red)
4. Monroe, 65.6 (Red)
5. South Plainfield, 62.7 (White)
6. Old Bridge, 62.2 (Red)
7. Piscataway, 60.3 (Red)
8. East Brunswick, 57.6 (Red)
9. Spotswood, 54.9 (Blue)
10. Sayreville, 53.6 (White)
11. Timothy Christian, 53.4 (Blue)
12. North Brunswick, 50.8 (White)
13. Woodbridge, 48.8 (White)
14. South Brunswick, 48.5 (Red)
15. JP Stevens, 45.8 (Red)
16. Perth Amboy, 45.3 (White)

Calvary Christian is ranked 20th in the GMC, according to the Born Power Index. But they and Spotswood would have to be ranked in the top eight, per GMC seeding rules.

In the Red Division, the BPI follows right along with the standings, but the GMC White is a little different. After South Plainfield, they have Sayreville coming out next, followed by North Brunswick and Woodbridge. But the division has South Plainfield, Woodbridge, North Brunswick and Sayreville, in that order. And in the Blue, Spotswood is two places ahead of Timothy Christian, but only by 1.5 points, which would indicate two very even teams.