Playoff Chase: A closer look at GMC and Somerset County boys’ basketball power points as the cutoff nears

The cutoff for the NJSIAA tournament isn’t for another two weeks – February 11th – but if things ended today, around 35 teams from the Central Jersey Sports Radio coverage area would be in the boys’ basketball tournament.

The NJSIAA uses traditional power points, and takes each teams best 16 power point games before the cutoff, using opponents’ first 16 games overall for residuals. That means teams that can reach 16 wins before the cutoff are in much better shape than those who reach only 14, since two of their power point values are likely to be losses, and lower scores.

The top 16 teams in each section make the playoffs, which is typically about 70-75% of all public teams. In the non-publics, all teams make the playoffs, with some of the higher seeds earning byes.

Here’s a section-by-section look at where area teams stand heading into Saturday play in January 28th:

Central Jersey Group 4

Trenton holds the top spot by 54 points over North Brunswick, a pretty comfortable lead at this point of the season. But the Raiders lead third-place Jackson Memorial by only 10 points and Freehold Township by a more comfortable 27. Atop four finish is a pretty good bet for the Raiders, considering the best 16 power point values count. With 15 wins, a loss here or there likely won’t knock them from the top four.

South Brunswick is at No. 8 (11-5, 323 points) and narrowly ahead of Manalapan (10-7, 315). Teams with room to get to 16 wins can make big jumps, so nothing is really set in stone for the Vikings; they could just as easily end up in the top half of the bracket as the bottom half. Montgmery is in tenth (6-12, 304), with Old Bridge two spots behind (7-9, 261). Both are a good bet to qualify at this point.

Sayreville would be considered a bubble team, along with East Brunswick. The Bombers are 4-15 with 204 points, while the Bears are 5-12 with 200 points.

Central Jersey Group 3

There are only a handful of teams here; Somerville and Carteret should be the only teams to make it, with JFK way out of the running.

Ewing leads the pack by 57 points over Brick Memorial, which still can pick up two more wins before the cutoff.

The Pioneers check in at No. 12 (6-10, 244) while the Ramblers are at 14 (6-11, 234), and both could make significant jumps with a couple of wins over the next two weeks.

Central Jersey Group 2

South River has been the Cinderella of the GMC this year, widely considered to be worthy of the No. 3 seed in the GMC Tournament out of the Blue Division, by virtue of a December 26th win at St. Joseph-Metuchen. The Rams sit behind Manasquan, which leads this section – but not by much. ‘Squan is 16-3 with 515 points, while the Rams are 17-1 with 511 points.

That’s a slim margin, and with both at the 16-win plateau, it’s going to come down to who can pick up more quality wins over the next two weeks. Surely, both may look to add a tough opponent to their schedule between now and then.

Bound Brook is at No. 4 with a 14-1 record and 431 points, just 20 ahead of Delaware Valley, and 31 ahead of Roselle, but the Crusaders have room for two more wins to boost their number, while the others can only fit one more win to get to 16.

Spotswood (13-5, 355) is fairly comfortable in the top eight, but may not be a shoo-in yet.

Middlesex checks in at 12 (12-6, 291), with East Brunswick Magnet (9-8), Metuchen (8-10) and Roselle Park (5-11) all tied at 207 points. The Blue Jays are likely in, but the Tigers and Bulldogs are squarely on the bubble.

Central Jersey Group 1

Keyport leads the section at 12-3, with 324 points, but they haven’t locked up anything yet. Even fourth place Manville (10-5, 300) is just 24 points behind them, and there’s plenty of opportunity for the top four teams to win games between now and February 11th, just as there is for the teams outside the top four, three of which – Shore (11-2, 297), Highland Park (11-3, 275) and Florence (9-7, 267) – are withing striking distance and 30 points of them.

South Amboy holds the No. 8 position at 9-6 with 220 points, with Somerset Tech at 12 (8-6, 166), Dunellen in 14th (3-13, 136) and Perth Amboy Magnet (0-12, 87) at 17 and on the bubble.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 4

This will be a fun race to watch down the stretch, with Skyland Conference Raritan Division-mates Ridge and Hillsborough holding the top two spots. The Red Devils are 12-4 with 475 points, and have two wins this season over the Raiders, who are 11-5, with 428 points. There’s plenty of room for these teams to gain major points over the next two weeks, since every win up to 16 likely knocks a loss off the ledger.

Franklin – having a nice year at 10-8 – sits in eighth, and has 364 points, 23 ahead of No. 9 Elizabeth (9-6). Again, there’s a lot of room to move here with plenty of wins still available and two weeks to play before the cutoff.

Down at No. 12 is Watchung Hills (9-7, 318), then seven teams are bunched up at 14 through 20, five of them from the CJSR coverage area, and all of them separated by just 24 power points. That’s some big bubble!

Scotch-Plains Fanwood (10-5, 297) is at No. 14, followed by Woodbridge (9-8, 296), JP Stevens (7-10, 293), Perth Amboy (8-8, 292), Piscataway (7-12, 289), Bridgewater-Raritan (5-12, 273) and Union (8-7, 271).

Edison is a real long shot, 66 points out of the running with a 7-11 record.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 3

Another good battle is brewing here between former White Division-mates in the GMC, but still rivals Colonia and South Plainfield. The Patriots are 14-4 with 479 points, 15 points ahead of the Tigers, who are 15-2. Colonia has more room to make bigger gains here. But they’re not alone. West Morris (16-2, 453) is just 11 points behind South Plainfield, but after that, Chatham (13-2) is way back with 365 points, 88 behind the Wolfpack.

After that, there’s no one from the area until you get all the way down to 18, but North Plainfield (6-8, 202) isn’t out of it yet. The Canucks need some wins, but they’re just 13 points out of a playoff spot behind Warren Hills (5-10), with Governor Livingston (6-9, 207) in between them.

North Jersey, Section 2, Group 2

Caldwell is atop this section, at 14-2 with 463 power points.

The only area team here is Bernards (8-10, 283) sitting in eighth. Potentially four teams are within realistic striking distance behind them, including Science Park (10-6, 277), Hackettstown (10-4, 2776), Verona (7-10, 274) and Lyndhurst (12-5, 272).

Non-Public North B

The top team here in the standings is St. Thomas Aquinas, which is 18-1 with 521 points, but the question is can they hold on to it. Behind them are St. Mary-Rutherford (15-2, 464), Gill St. Bernard’s (12-5, 430) and then the No.1 team in the state rankings, Roselle Catholic. Despite what the rankings say, and maybe even the eye test, the Lions are just 10-4, with a lot of room to move up, but will they? That will be the thing to watch over the next two weeks. Their schedule is stacked, but even some of those opponents have a few losses. It’s surprising, but then again, maybe not really.

Timothy Christian (8-9, 282) is in eighth, but it’s not a 16-yeam bracket, with only 14 in the section, and who knows is a school like Wardlaw-Hartridge – at 0-12 – will even play in the tournament.

Non-Public South B

State-ranked St. Rose of Belmar (16-2, 482) leads the pack here, and there’s just one CJSR-area team in the section. Calvary Christian of Old Bridge – the GMC Gold Division leader by a half-game over Highland Park heading into the weekend – is sixth with a 13-2 record and 278 points.

Non-Public South A

This section is just flat-out stacked. And it’s Camden Catholic atop the pile with a 13-3 mark and 546 points, 70 ahead of St. Augustine (13-4). Then Immaculata at 12-4 with 420 points, and then Rutgers Prep (13-6, 395).

And it’s so close behind the Argonauts, too, as St. Joseph-Metuchen at 10-6 is just one point away (394) and Notre Dame in sixth is just four points behind Prep, with 391 points.

Pingry (11-5, 330) checks in here at No. 9.