After a few weeks of play, the computer tells a different tale than human polls

Some teams have played three games already, most have played two. It’s still very early, and everyone’s rankings are different – especially in the seemingly wide-open Big Central Conference – but what does the Strength Index say about who are the best teams?

And who’s most improved?

Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Statewide, the top team in the Strength Index ratings is Bergen Catholic, at a 94.51, down just slightly from where they were to start the season, 95.36. Red Bank Catholic is just two-tenths of a point behind, followed by Caldwell – which is on the state’s longest active winning streak, now at 17 games – Donovan Catholic and St. Peter’s Prep rounding out the Top 5.

The highest-ranked Big Central Conference team would be Hillsborough, whose SI number has actually improved over last year, when they were 13-0. That makes sense, since they are 2–0 this season, winners of 15 straight. Their SI value is now 85.84, tenth best in the state. The next best BCC team is at No. 15, with St. Thomas Aquinas at 82.22, and Phillipsburg is down at 31, with a 78.36 Strength Index value.

Here are the top ten Big Central teams, by Strength Index:

1. Hillsborough – 85.84, +.97
2. St. Thomas Aquinas – 82.22, +9.38
3. Phillipsburg – 78.36, +6.03
4. North Hunterdon – 75.30, +5.81
5. Hillside – 68.12, +7.15
6. Ridge – 74.53, +.75
7. Union – 73.22, -9.01
8. North Brunswick – 71.86, +2.77
9. Cranford – 71.76, -4.51
10. Edison – 71.44, +8.92

In both the Central Jersey Sports Radio and Big Central Media polls, Phillipsburg is the top-ranked team, followed by North Brunswick. Again, it’s early, with last year’s success – or lack of – weighing a bit more heavily on SI values; that needs a full season to play out. But right now, the computers put Hillsborough first, and St. Thomas Aquinas – which debuted in both polls this week – second.

Phillipsburg is third in the Strength Index among Big Central teams, while North Brunswick is 8th.

North Hunterdon has debuted in both human polls, and there they are in the Top Ten of the SI numbers, as well.

Biggest Winners….

Who’s made the biggest gain from a year ago? By far, it’s A.L. Johnson out of Clark, having gained 15.64 in the Strength Index, to climb from a 42.86 at the start of the season to a 58.5. And if they keep winning as they have been, they’ll go even higher.

Remember, though, Strength Index isn’t what gets you seeded higher in the playoffs, it’s the Opponent Strength Index (or OSI), so this number is only relevant to the playoffs for the teams that play Johnson, not the Crusaders themselves.

The Crusaders are 2-0, having outscored their first two opponents – Governor Livingston and Bound Brook – a combined 84-6, scoring 42 points in each game, and shutting out Bound Brook at LaMonte Field last week. The Crusaders host Metuchen this Friday night and close out September with two straight road games, at Roselle and New Providence.

Here are the Most Improved teams in the Big Central, according to Strength Index:

1. Johnson, +15.64 (2-0)
2. St. Thomas Aquinas, +9.38 (2-1)
3. Edison, +8.92 (2-1)
4. Watchung Hills, +8.5 (2-1)
5. Linden, +8.02 (1-1)
6. Montgomery, +7.93 (3-0)
7. St. Joseph-Metuchen, +7.5 (2.0)
8. Hillside, +7.15 (2-0)
9. South Hunterdon, +6.60 (2-0)
10. Phillipsburg, +6.03 (2-0)

A lot of this makes sense, when you look at the numbers.

While Aquinas had a great year last year, this year has been a step up in competition, and they’re still 2-1, so that’s boosted their Strength value. Edison had a big win over Cedar Creek, which may be down a bit by later in the year, but the win, at the time, boosted their SI.

Montgomery is 3-0 for the first time since 2007, when the Cougars went 9-2, bowing out of the Central Jersey Group 4 semifinals to top-seed and eventual champion Howell. St. Joe’s is there because of Somerville’s high rating from years past when the Falcons beat them at Brooks Field Friday night.

And so on, and so on.