Here’s how the NJSIAA’s power points tweak can help smaller schools in the Big Central

In what really is one of the more notable changes in the NJSIAA’s high school football in years, certainly since the advent of the UPR system in 2018, Group Points are no longer a part of power points, and the multiplier – either much-loved or much-hated – has moved into the OSI part of the playoff equation.

It all sounds complicated, but every coach seems to want to know how will these changes affect the playoff race.

We’ve got you covered.

To begin with, the multiplier will have much less of an effect this year.

Let’s take a team that plays Red Bank Catholic for example, which last year was a Group B multiplier. That meant they were worth a fixed amount of power points: 42 for a win, 28 for a loss. That’s a big number, considering beating a Group 5 public school with a 7-0 record is only worth 32 points.

That means a public school that lost to RBC likely would still gain more points than beating just about anyone else but a top-tier large school.

Now, under the new rules, beating a Red Bank Catholic team with seven wins would only be worth 27 points: 6 quality points for the win, and 21 residuals, or 3 points for each win by a team you defeated. A loss would be worth just seven power points, one for each victory by a team you lost to.

So a win goes from 48 to 27, and a loss goes from 28 to 7 in under the new math.

Moving it to the multiplier, Red Bank Catholic would be worth the same for a win as a multiplier or not, currently 81.99 points (let’s say 42 to make it an even number). But, instead of getting 21 points for a loss (half the SI value) for playing a Group A multiplier, a loss would get a public school 80 percent of the value, or 65.6 points.

That’s certainly not more than beating any other elite non-multiplier public school. In the end, the multiplier will have much less effect this year – though it will have some – and it’s something we’ve been pushing for years.

We’ve always felt the multiplier should be a true “multiplier,” like the lottery, when winners ante up extra to make “x” times more than the jackpot. The final value is based on the jackpot. If it’s a $2 million jackpot, it’ll be worth more than winning with a $1 million jackpot.

The second part of the equation is taking Group Points out of the formula.

That’s also a big deal, because one of the issues some Middlesex County teams have had for years is that a school like Spotswood, South River or Metuchen – among the smallest Group 2 schools, would play like-sized schools – Group 1s like Highland Park or Dunellen, or smaller twos like each other, while other teams competing in the same playoff section would plays 2s and 3s, and sometimes larger.

Of Spotswood’s nine regular season opponents in 2024, all but three are Group 1 schools. They open with Wood-Ridge, and also play Brearley, Highland Park, Bound Brook, South Hunterdon and Roselle Park. The Group 2s are Roselle, South River and Dayton.

Let’s look at Spotswood from the Big Central and Rumson-Fair Haven from the Shore Conference. Both are in the same playoff supersection, South Group 2, with 30 other teams.

Who does Rumson play? Nobody smaller than a Group 2, for starters; those schools are Point Pleasant Boro and Manchester Township. Now, the Bulldogs are also very good, so they’re going to play a challenging schedule. They play Red Bank Catholic and Donovan Catholic, A and B multipliers, respectively, along with four Group 4 schools: Marlboro, Long Branch, Middletown South and Colts Neck.

So right off the bat, under the traditional power point formula, using Group Points, let’s say both teams won all their games. Rumson would have 20 group points from six teams. Spotswood would have 12 from nine teams.

How about some of the others from the Big Central?

South River plays four Group 1 schools, four Group 2s and a Group 3. They could get a maximum 15 under the old formula.

Even Delaware Valley – which plays a Group 5 (JP Stevens, which has lost 42 straight games), Group 3 South Plainfield, five Group 2s and Group 1 New Providence. They would max at 19 group points the old way.

What about those out of area?

Delran plays a Group 1, two Group 2s, three Group 3s and two Group 4s, and would have maxed out at 22.

Lower Cape May plays two Group 5s, a Group 4, three Group 3s, two Group 2s and a Group 1, for a maximum of 28.

Let’s go back to last year, where Spotswood narrowly made the playoffs at 8-1. To be fair, it should be pointed out that Lower Cape May also missed the playoffs at 7-1 in 2023. Many other teams’ power point averages likely would have been much lower under the new rules, and Spotswood would be a bit lower.

Manville had a similar situation a few years ago.

But now, it’s a level playing field. All because Group Points are a thing of the past.

And we think the NJSIAA has done a good thing here. Essentially, they’ve come to the realization that the size of a school isn’t as much of a correlation (as it used to be?) to the quality of a team.

Which brings is to one more part to this analysis: We think this will help smaller schools more than large ones, where there are typically fewer issues like this.

Most Group 4 and 5 schools play Group 4 and 5 schools. Few will play a Group 2 or 3, with the exception of some outliers, like a JP Stevens, for example, until they get their ship righted.

We’ll take another look once the playoffs are seeded to see how it all worked out.