Plenty on the line today at the GMCT girls’ quarterfinals beyond a trip to Tuesday’s semis

When ninth-seed Middlesex takes on top-seed St. Thomas Aquinas at 5 pm Saturday in the final of four GMC Tournament quarterfinal games at Middlesex County College in Edison, more will be on the line than “just” a trip to the semifinals.

It would appear the Blue Jays have a shot at a top seed in the Central Jersey Group 1 state playoffs, based on power point standings published on NJ.com, which is the official site for the standings.

Middlesex (17-5) enters the day in second at 496, a slim six points separating them and first place Shore Regional (19-4, 502). With the top 16 power point games on a team’s schedule counting toward qualification, a win today by either team would have to bring a higher value than their current lowest score.

The lowest power point value for Middlesex is 13, for a loss to Edison on January 3rd. Should they beat Aquinas today, that game would be worth 46 power points. The 46 would be added and the 13 would be dropped, leaving a net gain of 33 power points for Middlesex, yielding a total of 529.

Shore plays 15-8 Jackson Memorial today, a 39 point game, with their lowest being 17. A win nets them 22, and would give them 524,

So, it would appear a win by Middlesex today over Aquinas could clinch the top seed. A loss would not be enough, only getting one residual point for each win by Aquinas through its first 16 games; they had 13, and that wouldn’t be enough to bump the lowest score of 13 for the Edison loss.

There’s even more on the line in Central Jersey Group 4.

South Brunswick and East Brunswick will play today in the 1:00 quarterfinal at Middlesex County College, and they currently sit second and third, respectively, in CJ4. But the Vikings (19-6, 510 points) are too far behind first-place Hightstown (19-5, 533) to get the top seed. A win would gain 28 points, but subtract their lowest score of 15, for a net gain of 13, still leaving them ten points out of first. And East Brunswick (13-10, 468) wouldn’t be able to jump them.

But Monroe (13-7, 447) surely could jump the Lady Bears from fourth into third with a second win this season over Edison in the 3:00 quarterfinal. That would be worth another 52 points, dropping their lowest of 11 from a season-opening loss to South Brunswick. The net gain would be 41 points, giving them 488. Even an East Brunswick win would give them only 481.

Not to mention the fifth- and sixth-place teams right behind them: Howell with 427, Jackson Memorial with 425.

Howell plays Ranney in a regular season game today (28 points, dropping 14, net gain of 14), and Jackson Memorial plays Shore (worth 49, minus 14, net gain of 35).

Bottom line: there are a lot of moving parts here, but if things break right, the GMC could have the 2-, 3- and 4-seeds in CJ4.